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Bond Convexity: When Duration Is Not Enough
Bond Convexity: When Duration Is Not Enough
A reproducible 20-year bond example shows when duration errors matter, what convexity fixes, and why a more convex portfolio can still lose when the yield curve twists.
zhan chen
ROIC vs WACC: When Growth Destroys Value
ROIC vs WACC: When Growth Destroys Value
A company can earn a high return on invested capital while its next expansion destroys value. A worked example separates average from incremental returns, reconciles accounting adjustments and shows what evidence is needed before treating growth as an investment advantage.
zhan chen
Rising Shipping Risks in the Strait of Hormuz Reinforce Fed Rate-Hike Expectations
Rising Shipping Risks in the Strait of Hormuz Reinforce Fed Rate-Hike Expectations
St. Louis Fed President Musalem says further rate hikes may be needed over the next six to nine months; Iran may close new shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz, heightening the risk of tanker attacks...
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Delta Neutral Is Not Risk Free: Gamma and Hedging Costs
Delta Neutral Is Not Risk Free: Gamma and Hedging Costs
A zero delta cancels one local sensitivity, not the whole risk of an options position. Reconcile gamma, time decay, volatility and trading costs with a fully specified hedge example.
zhan chen
Diluted EPS: What the Share Count Leaves Out
Diluted EPS: What the Share Count Leaves Out
Basic and diluted EPS can be identical even when millions of options remain outstanding. Reconcile the share-count bridge, average share price and excluded instruments before judging dilution.
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Forex Trading Software and Tools: A Complete Beginner’s Guide for 2026
Forex Trading Software and Tools: A Complete Beginner’s Guide for 2026
Which Forex trading software is worth using in 2026? Compare the most popular trading platforms and apps, and find the tools beginners actually need.
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Cash Flow Quality: Growth or Working Capital Release?
Cash Flow Quality: Growth or Working Capital Release?
A surge in operating cash flow can come from collecting old receivables, selling down stock or paying suppliers later. Reconcile the cash increase before treating it as sustainable earnings power.
zhan chen
DCF Terminal Value: Growth Has a Cost
DCF Terminal Value: Growth Has a Cost
Raising perpetual growth from 3% to 4% need not lift terminal value as much as a spreadsheet suggests. Rebuild reinvestment, next-year cash flow and discounting before trusting a DCF valuation.
zhan chen
Oil Transportation Costs Hit a Record High as Fed Rate-Hike Expectations Strengthen
Oil Transportation Costs Hit a Record High as Fed Rate-Hike Expectations Strengthen
Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz send oil transportation costs soaring to an astonishing new high; Fed minutes show that most policymakers favored another rate hike before year-end...
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Enterprise Value vs Market Cap: How Debt Changes Share Value
Enterprise Value vs Market Cap: How Debt Changes Share Value
An 800 million market cap can imply the same operating value as a rival valued at 1,100 million. Reconcile debt, cash and other claims before comparing multiples or estimating per-share value.
zhan chen
Share Price Unchanged, P/E Down: Audit the Earnings Denominator
Share Price Unchanged, P/E Down: Audit the Earnings Denominator
A stock can move from 20 times earnings to 15 times without its price falling. Rebuild the rolling earnings window, isolate a disposal gain and stress-test forecasts before interpreting a lower multiple as better value.
zhan chen
Forward Rates Are Not Forecasts: Read the Yield Curve’s Reinvestment Hurdle
Forward Rates Are Not Forecasts: Read the Yield Curve’s Reinvestment Hurdle
A downward yield curve does not tell you where policy rates must go. A worked zero-coupon example turns the implied forward rate into a reinvestment hurdle, then tests costs, curve shifts and quotation conventions.
zhan chen
Middle East Energy Risks Escalate as Fed Rate-Hike Expectations Rise Again
Middle East Energy Risks Escalate as Fed Rate-Hike Expectations Rise Again
Iran steps up attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, with the impact on shipping volumes still unclear; Daly says further rate hikes may be needed if AI, tariffs and energy shocks persist...
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VaR Is Not Your Maximum Loss: Calculate Expected Shortfall Before Trusting a Risk Limit
VaR Is Not Your Maximum Loss: Calculate Expected Shortfall Before Trusting a Risk Limit
Two portfolios can share the same VaR and have very different bad outcomes. Reproduce a 100-scenario example, handle fractional tail weights correctly, and test what a risk-limit pass really means.
zhan chen
Credit Spreads Tighten, Yet Bonds Fall: Separate Rates, Spreads and Default Risk
Credit Spreads Tighten, Yet Bonds Fall: Separate Rates, Spreads and Default Risk
A narrower credit spread does not guarantee a higher bond price. Reprice a five-year bond, separate two sources of risk, and test why a 150-basis-point spread is not a default probability.
zhan chen
Beat VWAP, Still Pay More: Calculate Implementation Shortfall Including Unfilled Orders
Beat VWAP, Still Pay More: Calculate Implementation Shortfall Including Unfilled Orders
A better-than-VWAP fill can coexist with a costly unfinished decision. Reconcile an original 1,200-share example, including delay, execution, fees and the shares never bought, without double-counting the cost of waiting.
zhan chen
Breakeven Inflation Is Not a CPI Forecast: Read the Yield Gap Before Trading It
Breakeven Inflation Is Not a CPI Forecast: Read the Yield Gap Before Trading It
The same fall in breakeven inflation can come from very different market moves. Separate cash-flow indexation, real-yield risk and liquidity effects before treating the Treasury yield gap as an inflation forecast.
zhan chen
Do More Expensive Calls Mean a Bullish Market? Put–Call Parity, Dividends and Real Quotes
Do More Expensive Calls Mean a Bullish Market? Put–Call Parity, Dividends and Real Quotes
A call can cost more than its matching put without signalling an expected rally. Rebuild the cash flows, account for dividends and funding, then test the apparent gap at executable bid and ask prices.
zhan chen
Is a 60% Trading Win Rate Reliable? Sample Size, Confidence Intervals and Costs
Is a 60% Trading Win Rate Reliable? Sample Size, Confidence Intervals and Costs
Twelve wins in 20 trades and 120 wins in 200 both produce a 60% win rate, but very different evidence. Recalculate the uncertainty, then test whether costs and the sampling design overturn the conclusion.
zhan chen
Linear vs Log Charts: Why the Same Trendline Can Give Opposite Signals
Linear vs Log Charts: Why the Same Trendline Can Give Opposite Signals
A price of 350 can sit above one trendline and below another without either quote being wrong. Rebuild the two lines from the same anchors, compare the arithmetic, and choose a chart scale before testing a breakout.
zhan chen
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