The direction of travel is real and the diplomatic momentum is building. WTI's path toward the $80 area and eventually toward pre-war levels near $65 is becoming more credible with every back-channel report. But the final confirmation trade, when it comes, will be swift and violent. Position accordingly.

What happened to WTI between April 30 and May 6 is one of the sharpest and most decisive bearish reversals visible on any commodity chart right now. Price peaked near $107.00 at the end of April and has since collapsed to $89.225 at time of writing, a decline of nearly $18 in just over a week that has completely dismantled the bullish structure that had been building since late April. The selling is not orderly. It is conviction-driven, momentum-fuelled, and showing very little sign of exhaustion at current levels.

The chart's most important recent development is the violent breakdown through the $96.00 horizontal support band that had acted as a meaningful floor across multiple sessions in late April and early May. That level, which had previously served as resistance during the April rally and then converted cleanly to support, has now been shattered with the kind of large bearish candles that leave institutional fingerprints all over the move. Once $96.00 gave way, the decline accelerated rapidly through $94.00, through $92.00, and is now pressing against the $88.00 to $90.00 zone where some prior price activity from the mid-April period provides the next reference point.

The $90.00 psychological level is the immediate battleground. Price has already tested below it intraday, printing a low of $88.915, before recovering marginally to current levels near $89.225. A sustained 4-hour close below $90.00 would be the confirmation that this support has been absorbed by sellers and would open the measured move extension visible on the projected path, pointing toward the $86.00 horizontal band as the next downside target. That level aligns with prior consolidation activity from the April 17 to April 22 period and represents the first area where genuine structural buying interest might re-emerge.

Below $86.00, the $80.00 major psychological support comes into focus as the primary downside objective. This is where the chart's projected path terminates, and it is not an aggressive call. A move from $107 to $80 represents a retracement that is entirely proportionate to the scale of the preceding rally and is supported by the fundamental narrative of a Hormuz reopening reducing the conflict risk premium that built oil prices to those elevated levels in the first place. The $78.00 to $80.00 zone also carries the weight of being the last significant horizontal support visible on the chart before price would be trading at levels approaching pre-conflict territory.

긍정적인 측면에서 보자면, 회복 시도는 여러 저항선에 부딪힐 가능성이 높습니다. 첫 번째 저항선은 92달러이며, 그 다음으로는 이미 크게 돌파된 96달러 영역이 있습니다. 두 수준 모두 단순히 숏커버링만으로는 쉽게 무너지지 않을 것으로 예상됩니다. 하락 전망에 대한 타당한 반박을 위해서는 96달러 이상에서 지속적인 종가 상승을 보여주는 회복세가 필요하지만, 이는 호르무즈 해협 재개방이 가속화되고 테헤란이 미국의 포괄적인 평화 제안을 적극적으로 검토하고 있는 현재의 외교적 환경과 근본적으로 상충되는 것으로 보입니다.

이 차트에서는 하락세가 우세하며, 기본적인 요소들도 하락세에 유리합니다.

WTI 원유 매도

참가비: 89.50달러

손절매 가격: 94.00달러