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Yen Weakens! USDJPY Uptrend Confirmed
Forex
Technical Analysis
Summary:
Recent wage, employment and inflation releases from Japan and the U.S. confirm synchronous labour-market cooling across major economies, but with divergent speed and scale, materially reshaping the monetary-policy outlook. Heightened Sino-Japanese tensions add external pressure to the yen.
Buy
PENDINGUSDJPY
EXP
157.000
Entry Price
160.000
TP
155.000
SL
157.817 -0.100 -0.06%
--
Point
PENDING
155.000
SL
CLOSING
157.000
Entry Price
160.000
TP
Fundamentals
The government's preliminary November data show real cash earnings fell 2.8%YoY—the steepest drop since Jan. 2025 and the eleventh consecutive decline—driven by a 17% YoY plunge in special cash earnings (one-off bonuses). Nominal wages rose just 0.5% YoY, the weakest since Dec. 2021.
The MHLW stresses that special payments are volatile in non-bonus months and November prints are typically revised up. Underlying momentum remains intact: base pay +2.0%YoY, overtime +1.2%YoY. Inflation continues to outpace wages. The CPI index used to deflate earnings advanced 3.3% YoY, above core gauges.
With real incomes squeezed, the BoJ lifted the policy rate to 0.75% last month—its highest in three decades—and expects sustained wage gains in the 2026 shuntō negotiations. Rengo has tabled a 5%-plus total wage increase target.
In the U.S. the labor market is cooling, not cracking. Seasonally-adjusted initial claims rose 8,000 to 208k,000 in the week ending 27 Dec—still a historic low. Holiday noise dominates the recent volatility, and layoff volumes remain contained. Hiring is on hold: tariff uncertainty and faster AI adoption keep recruiters sidelined, producing a low-turnover stalemate. Structural stress is nevertheless building.
Challenger, Gray & Christmas report U.S. employers announced 1,206,000 job cuts in 2025, +58% YoY and a five-year high, driven by federal downsizing and tech-sector cost rationalization. Years of over-hiring plus rapid AI transition are accelerating tech attrition. Hiring plans are down 34% YoY to the lowest level since 2010, raising the risk of longer spells of unemployment. Continuing claims have climbed to 1914,000, job openings have fallen to a 14-month low, and the vacancy-to-unemployed ratio has dropped to 0.91, its lowest since Mar. 2021.
Against this backdrop, the Chicago Fed estimates the December unemployment rate stayed at 4.6%. Policymakers treat this threshold as consistent with further monetary easing. Reuters-surveyed economists expect the official rate to edge down to 4.5%.
Technical Analysis
Daily: Bollinger Bands on USDJPY have contracted and flattened. The EMA12 is horizontal. A large bullish candle on 19 Dec 2025 closed above the upper band, and price has since tracked the EMA12 higher, re-entering a short-term uptrend with a high-probability retest of 158–160. MACD fast and slow lines have pulled back to zero and re-crossed bullishly, re-confirming a long signal. RSI 59 with rising lows keeps buyers in control, with the support at 156-157.
Weekly: Price oscillates around the EMA12 within the ascending channel. While this EMA holds, a move toward 160 is anticipated. MACD is shaping a "golden-kiss" re-cross. RSI 67, bullish bias intact. At this moment, traders are advised to go long at lows.
Trade Recommendations
Trade Direction: Buy
Entry Price: 157
Target Price: 160
Stop Loss: 155
Support: 154.7/153.2/150
Resistance Levels: 158/158.8/160
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