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      XAUUSD Hits Record Above $4,500 but Momentum Shows Early Signs of Stretch

      Gerik

      Commodity

      Summary:

      XAUUSD is trading near all-time highs above $4,500/oz, with recent data showing gold breaking past this monumental level driven by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical strain and rate-cut expectations...

      Sell

      XAUUSD

      End Time
      CLOSED

      4510.00

      Entry Price

      4455.00

      TP

      4530.00

      SL

      4476.56 -56.78 -1.25%

      5500

      Points

      Profit

      4455.00

      TP

      4454.86

      CLOSING

      4510.00

      Entry Price

      4530.00

      SL

      Market overview

      Gold prices have surged recently, with prices trading around $4,490–$4,510/oz as of the latest market prints breaking the key psychological $4,500 level for the first time and setting fresh all-time highs. This rally is powered by heightened safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and expectations of further U.S. rate cuts, which reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.
      On the M15 timeframe, BTCUSD’s tight price action around these peak levels shows wavering upward momentum: repeated tests near the highs without extensions often indicate that participants are hesitant to chase, creating fertile ground for short-term bearish counter moves. The concentrated price behavior near all-time highs suggests exhaustion rather than structural breakdown which is a classic sell-the-rally setup on lower timeframes.

      Market sentiment

      Sentiment remains strongly bullish on a macro level, as investors have flocked to gold throughout 2025, pushing prices up more than 70% year-to-date. Central bank buying, monetary easing expectations, and persistent geopolitical risk narratives have underpinned this rally.
      However, such extreme rallies often coincide with sentiment saturation: when an asset climbs into record territory, the marginal buyer becomes scarcer and profit-taking becomes more prevalent than fresh allocation. On M15, this dynamic manifests as shorter candles, higher wicks, and rapid rejection at peaks behavior typical ahead of corrective pullbacks rather than continuous breakouts.

      Technical analysis

      XAUUSD Hits Record Above $4,500 but Momentum Shows Early Signs of Stretch_1
      On M15, price has extended well above the mid-band toward the upper band with historically thin holiday liquidity. Extended excursions beyond the upper band from overbought conditions often precede mean reversion toward the mid-band or even lower. With bands already wide, the likelihood of squeeze or pullback increases if short-term support weakens.
      Ichimoku (9,26,52): The cloud is now acting as dynamic support below price, but the premium location far above recent value zones suggests buyers may struggle to absorb more risk at these heights. Stalled or flattening Tenkan/Kijun lines near the all-time highs would signal waning short-term bullish momentum and raise the probability of corrective rotations.
      Stoch (5,3,3): On the M15 chart, Stoch oscillators are extended toward overbought and can turn downward before price does a leading sign that momentum is exhausted at extremum levels. A downward cross from these zones is a classic technical trigger for short entries before deeper pullbacks unfold.

      Trade plan

      Entry: $4,510
      Take Profit: $4,455
      Stop Loss: $4,530
      Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
      You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

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