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XAU/USD correcting after record highs
Commodity
Economic
Summary:
Gold (XAU/USD) is pulling back from the $4,460–$4,500 area, retreating toward ~$4,430–$4,450 as profit-taking increases, the U.S. dollar strengthens, and traders reduce safe-haven exposure ahead of key U.S. jobs data and commodity index rebalancing...
Sell
TradingXAUUSD
EXP
4460.00
Entry Price
4380.00
TP
4520.00
SL
4506.10 +28.31 +0.63%
0
Point
Flat
4380.00
TP
CLOSING
4460.00
Entry Price
4520.00
SL
Overview
Gold has retraced after a strong rally that repeatedly tested and briefly exceeded the $4,460–$4,500 resistance band, marking a short-term pause in the uptrend as traders lock in profits and the firm U.S. dollar exerts downward pressure on bullion. Spot gold and futures both show modest declines today, with the market digesting gains from late 2025 and resetting into a lower intraday range.
Despite strong structural drivers including geopolitical tension and ongoing central bank demand near-term flows are being influenced by profit taking and technical resistance at the upper bands. A planned annual rebalancing of major commodity indexes (e.g., Bloomberg Commodity Index), which can trigger multi-billion dollar selling pressure in gold and silver futures, is also weighing on prices.
In addition, investor caution ahead of the U.S. jobs report contributes to choppy trading as participants hesitate to load new long positions near recent highs.
Market sentiment
Short-term sentiment has shifted from aggressive upside toward range distribution. Pullbacks from the upper trend band reflect hesitation among buyers to commit at elevated prices after several records and multi-year highs. The fact that gold is trading off its intraday highs despite ongoing macro support suggests that near-term buyers are less aggressive and susceptible to technical resistance typical conditions where tactical selling can be energetically validated as momentum stalls.
The firm dollar narrative which has moderated gold’s rally by improving opportunity cost relative to a non-yielding asset reinforces this corrective bias today.
Technical analysis
On M15, current price action shows gold below the upper Bollinger Band, with recent tests failing to establish sustained closes above it. When a move becomes overstretched repeatedly touching the upper band without clear breakout follow-through the probability of a pullback toward the mid-band (20 SMA) increases.
Bollinger Bands: The bands remain structurally wide after recent volatility, and intraday rejection near the upper boundary signals short-term exhaustion rather than breakout strength. A move below the mid-band would confirm a bearish micro bias.
Ichimoku (9,26,52): On the M15 chart, price proximity to the Kijun-sen highlights a potential equilibrium shift. A failure to reclaim above this dynamic level especially after recent tests and sell reactions points to diminishing upside control. The Tenkan and Senkou Span arrangements can act as dynamic resistance during corrective pulls.
Stoch (5,3,3): The oscillator is rolling off from extended readings after recent swings, suggesting decreasing upward momentum. A bearish crossover near mid-range strengthens the case for corrective downside continuation on M15.
Key short-term technical zones:
Upper resistance: ~$4,460–$4,500 (short-term supply and psychological cap)
Immediate support: ~$4,420–$4,440 (mid-band / short pivot area)
Deeper support: ~$4,380–$4,400 (lower dynamic support region)
Trade recommendation
Entry: $4,460–$4,495
Take Profit: $4,380
Stop Loss: $4,520
Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
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