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WTI Dips Below $62 Amid Inventory Build and Iran Risk, Weekly Outlook Mixed
Commodity
Summary:
WTI oil prices declined for the third straight session to $61.10, pressured by rising inventories and Iran deal speculation.
Sell
CLOSEDWTI
End Time
61.000
Entry Price
57.000
TP
63.500
SL
60.205 -0.344 -0.57%
2500
Points
Loss
57.000
TP
63.508
CLOSING
61.000
Entry Price
63.500
SL
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil extended its losing streak into a third consecutive session on Friday, slipping to around $61.10 a barrel in early European trade. Despite the persistent decline, prices are still on course for a modest weekly gain, as rekindled optimism surrounding US-China trade relations provides a counterweight to intensifying global supply concerns.
The interplay between bullish geopolitical developments and bearish supply fundamentals has left oil traders in a state of flux. While headlines around the long-embattled US-China trade dynamic helped lift sentiment earlier in the week, the crude market's upside potential continues to be capped by the specter of a resurgent Iranian oil supply and rising global inventories.
Market sentiment received a boost earlier this week after the United States and China—the world’s two largest oil consumers—announced a preliminary breakthrough in trade talks. According to official statements, the US has agreed to cut tariffs on Chinese imports from a punitive 145% to 30%. In return, China will lower its tariffs on American goods from 125% to 10%.
This bilateral gesture of economic de-escalation has injected a dose of confidence into global markets, raising hopes that trade flows and industrial activity will rebound—potentially reviving demand for crude oil, which has remained subdued in recent quarters amid fears of a global slowdown.
“This deal has the potential to restore investor confidence in the global growth story, which had been deeply eroded by prolonged tariff tensions,” noted Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets. “Oil, being the most demand-sensitive asset in the macro complex, has responded accordingly—though gains remain tentative.”
However, any relief rally in oil remains undercut by speculation that a new US-Iran nuclear agreement could soon materialize, potentially ending years of sanctions on Tehran’s oil exports. President Donald Trump hinted earlier in the week that negotiations were progressing and that Iran had “sort of” accepted the terms of a renewed framework.
While no formal agreement has been reached, and several contentious issues reportedly remain unresolved, the mere possibility of Iranian barrels re-entering the market has forced traders to reassess supply risks. According to ING analysts cited by Reuters, the successful implementation of a deal could allow Iran to ramp up its crude production by as much as 400,000 barrels per day, further exacerbating concerns of oversupply.
In addition to the Iran factor, the International Energy Agency (IEA) added fuel to bearish sentiment by revising its global supply forecast upwards by 380,000 barrels per day. The revision reflects stronger-than-expected output from Saudi Arabia and other members of the OPEC+ alliance, many of whom have been steadily easing their voluntary production curbs amid improved fiscal balances and competitive pressures.
Further weighing on the market was an unexpected rise in US crude stockpiles, as revealed by the latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) data. Inventories increased last week, defying analyst expectations of a drawdown, and signaling tepid domestic demand or increased refinery maintenance. This inventory build, coupled with looming additions from both sanctioned and unsanctioned producers, reinforces the notion that supply continues to outstrip demand.
Technical Analysis 
From a technical perspective, the price of WTI crude appears to be approaching a critical resistance level. A horizontal ceiling around the $62.00 mark is likely to attract selling pressure. This zone has historically acted as a barrier, capping previous attempts at bullish breakouts. If the price fails to convincingly breach this level, a corrective move lower could be imminent. In that scenario, downside targets emerge around the $57.00 handle—marking a key support area where buyers have previously stepped in.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
SELL WTI
ENTRY PRICE: 61.00
STOP LOSS: 63.50
TAKE PROFIT: 57.00
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