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WTI Climbs as Russia Restores Novorossiysk Exports, but Oversupply Worries Curb Gains
Traders' Opinions
Summary:
WTI crude edged higher on Monday as risk sentiment steadied and Russia restored shipments from its Novorossiysk port, though lingering geopolitical tensions and a looming US data backlog kept traders cautious.
Buy
TradingWTI
EXP
59.999
Entry Price
64.000
TP
58.000
SL
59.429 -0.184 -0.31%
0
Point
Flat
58.000
SL
CLOSING
59.999
Entry Price
64.000
TP
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil inched higher on Monday, supported by an improving risk environment and easing supply disruptions after Russia restored crude shipments from its Novorossiysk export hub. The move provided markets with some relief following last week’s Ukrainian strike that had briefly halted operations and lifted geopolitical risk premiums. At the time of writing, WTI traded near $60.00 per barrel, up roughly 0.5% on the day after rebounding from an early slide toward $59.22.
The rapid resumption of activity at the Black Sea port helped unwind part of the volatility injected into the market late last week. Still, traders remain reluctant to fully unwind geopolitical hedges, given that strikes targeting Russian energy infrastructure have become increasingly recurrent. The conflict’s fluid dynamics—and the potential for renewed disruptions—continue to inject a layer of headline-driven volatility into crude markets, keeping risk appetite in check.
The stabilization comes at a moment when investors are bracing for a flood of delayed United States economic data following the end of the government shutdown. With the US representing one of the world’s largest consumers of crude, traders are keenly awaiting indicators that will reveal whether demand is holding firm. Any signs of slowing growth or waning consumer activity could quickly dampen the market’s fragile optimism, especially given recent concerns that the Federal Reserve’s higher-for-longer stance may weigh on fuel consumption during the first quarter of next year.
Beyond short-term catalysts, the broader outlook for crude remains clouded by persistent oversupply concerns. Forecasts from major energy agencies—including the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)—project that global supply growth will continue to exceed demand through at least 2026. Rising non-OPEC production, particularly from US shale basins and faster-than-expected output from Brazil and Guyana, is adding to a global surplus that has kept a firm ceiling on prices despite geopolitical hotspots flaring across key production regions.
In my view, this structural imbalance is increasingly weighing on sentiment. Markets appear increasingly convinced that OPEC+ may need to consider deeper or more coordinated supply management strategies in early 2026 if they aim to stabilize prices above the $60–$65 range. Without additional intervention, the supply overhang could become more pronounced, particularly if macroeconomic softness in Europe and Asia persists into the second half of the year.
Technical Analysis
Technically, WTI remains trapped beneath a dense cluster of resistance levels that have repeatedly capped bullish attempts over the past several weeks. The $61.00–$61.50 zone remains the most immediate ceiling, aligning with the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a former support region that has since flipped into a formidable resistance band. Since late October, this region has rejected multiple recovery attempts, reinforcing the market’s bearish undertone.
A daily close above this zone would be required to alleviate downside pressure, but the path higher remains far from straightforward. Even if bulls manage to reclaim the 21-day SMA, the next major barrier sits near the 100-day SMA around $62.89—a level that has not been sustainably breached since September.
On the downside, initial support lies around $59.00, followed by the more psychologically significant $58.00 handle. A break below these levels would risk accelerating bearish momentum, potentially opening a path toward the mid-$50s if macro headwinds intensify.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
BUY WTI
ENTRY PRICE: 60.00
STOP LOSS: 58.00
TAKE PROFIT: 64.00
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