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War Escalates! USD/JPY Tests 160 Again
Summary:
The IMF supports the Bank of Japan's current interest rate hike path.
Buy
TradingUSDJPY
EXP
159.603
Entry Price
161.000
TP
158.500
SL
159.407 -0.145 -0.09%
0
Point
Flat
158.500
SL
CLOSING
159.603
Entry Price
161.000
TP
Fundamentals
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) supports the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) current interest rate hike path. Following policy consultations on Friday, the IMF praised the resilience of the Japanese economy and backed the gradual exit from monetary stimulus, predicting that inflation will converge toward the 2% target by 2027.
However, the Japanese Yen (JPY) is facing significant downward pressure as oil prices surge due to U.S. President Trump intensifying threats against Iran. Japan’s heavy reliance on Middle Eastern oil imports makes it extremely vulnerable to supply disruptions. President Trump has set a new deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while escalating threats against Iranian power plants and civilian infrastructure.
In response, Iranian officials have warned of reciprocal retaliatory measures, threatening to attack U.S.-linked infrastructure. They further stated that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until reparations for war damages are paid. Meanwhile, growing fears of an escalating conflict in the Middle East have also bolstered safe-haven demand for the Yen.
Investor sentiment has tilted toward risk aversion as a result of escalating tensions with Iran. U.S. President Trump’s recent ultimatum regarding the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has intensified market anxiety, driving capital flows into the U.S. Dollar.Meanwhile, U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) for March surged past expectations, adding 178,000 jobs while the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%. This robust data has reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain higher interest rates for a longer period.Investors are now shifting their focus to the U.S. ISM Services PMI data for March. Market consensus expects the Services PMI to pull back to 55.0, down from February’s reading of 56.1.
Technical Analysis
On the Daily (D1) timeframe, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, and the moving averages have flattened out. Price continues to trend upward, oscillating along the EMA12. Despite a bearish MACD crossover, the downside momentum has been lackluster, indicating that the overall uptrend remains intact. With the RSI at 57, market participants are currently in a "wait-and-see" mode.On the 4-hour (H4) timeframe, the Bollinger Bands are also contracting, and moving averages are horizontal. The MACD fast and slow lines continue to hold above the zero line, confirming that the bullish bias remains unchanged. The RSI sits at 56, reflecting a neutral market sentiment.Trading Strategy: Focus on buying the dips .
Trading RecommendationTrading Direction: Buy
Entry Price: 159.5
Target Price: 161
Stop-loss: 158.5
Support Levels: 158, 157, 155
Resistance Levels: 160, 161, 162
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