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Wall Street Shrugs Off Geopolitical Black Swan, Trading Returns to Data-Driven Mode
Commodity
Summary:
Wall Street has shrugged off the political upheaval in Venezuela, with market focus shifting to non-farm payroll data.
Sell
CLOSEDXAUUSD
End Time
4428.36
Entry Price
4300.00
TP
4480.00
SL
4505.80 +28.01 +0.63%
5164
Points
Loss
4300.00
TP
4480.07
CLOSING
4428.36
Entry Price
4480.00
SL
Fundamentals
Gold prices maintained their prior trend before the European trading session on Tuesday. Currently hovering near the lower bound of the intraday trading range, the price has declined for the second consecutive trading day.
Although the U.S. military's raid and capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro over the weekend sent shockwaves through international politics, Wall Street responded with indifference. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), a gauge of market fear, remained subdued, staying below the 16 level.
Despite facing mild downward pressure, gold prices have stayed within the previous day's trading range, indicating market hesitation rather than a confirmed reversal. The absence of follow-through selling suggests that this price movement may be a pause or consolidation phase following the recent rally.
Furthermore, amid escalating trade tensions, slowing economic growth and lingering uncertainties surrounding AI-driven trading, the bull market will require multiple positive catalysts to sustain its strength in 2026. Fiscal and monetary stimulus policies remain the backbone of the market, and it is not yet the right time to consider large-scale short positions on gold.
This week, investors will focus on key data releases including S&P Global Services PMI, factory orders, jobless claims and employment figures, to gauge the Fed‘s interest rate trajectory. Given the aforementioned fundamental factors, a prudent approach would be to wait for the release of this series of data before considering market entry.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $4,380 may act as a key support for gold prices. A decisive break below this level could trigger technical selling, dragging prices down to the starting point of this week's rally. Meanwhile, the MACD line is below the signal line and in negative territory, with the histogram expanding to the downside, indicating strengthening bearish momentum.
In addition, the RSI stands at 40, presenting a neutral-bearish signal with a sustained downward trend, highlighting limited upside potential. Any attempt at a short-term rebound will face resistance at the European session high of $4,440. Failure to break above this resistance level will cap the rebound and stabilize the price.
Currently, gold is trading in the middle of the $4,273-$4,550 range. It is advisable to trade opportunistically, focusing on a strategy of buying low and selling high.
Trade Recommendations
Trade Direction: Sell
Entry Price: 4430
Target Price: 4300
Stop Loss: 4480
Valid Until: January 23, 2026 23:55:00
Support: 4407/4396/4388
Resistance: 4440/4459/4467
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