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USDJPY Surges Strongly; 160.00 May Be Just the Beginning
Forex
Summary:
Yesterday, the U.S. released September non-farm payroll data that far exceeded expectations, which will provide continued support for the U.S. dollar in the short term, thereby pushing the USDJPY to continue to rise.
Buy
TradingUSDJPY
EXP
156.717
Entry Price
160.100
TP
155.200
SL
156.614 -0.293 -0.19%
0
Point
Flat
155.200
SL
CLOSING
156.717
Entry Price
160.100
TP
Fundamentals
The non-farm employment data released by the U.S. yesterday significantly exceeded expectations: in September, non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000, surpassing the market forecast of 50,000. This unexpected growth prompted the market to reassess the Federal Reserve's timing for interest rate cuts and the dollar's valuation in the short term. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate modestly rose to 4.4%, with wage growth remaining moderate, indicating ongoing employment structural differentiation.
From a forex transmission perspective, the better-than-expected non-farm figures initially supported the dollar's tone—market expectations of the Federal Reserve maintaining higher interest rates in the near term have been reinstated, leading to continued capital inflows into USD assets. As for the yen, the immediate consequence of the dollar's strength is the renewed upward momentum in USDJPY, igniting short-term bullish sentiment. Several forex institutions and research firms reported that USDJPY is testing key resistance levels with room to push higher.
However, the data also carry some cautious signals: the rise in unemployment and moderate wage growth suggest that the economy is not overheating across the board. If future data weaken over the coming months, expectations for interest rate cuts could increase again, making the dollar's strength difficult to sustain long-term. This indicates that trading strategies should primarily focus on short-term dollar momentum while maintaining a cautious mid-term approach.
Technical Analysis
In the 1D timeframe, after breaking out of the triangle consolidation pattern, the USDJPY has recently demonstrated a strong upward momentum. The primary resistance level to monitor is at 158.86. A decisive break above this level could further extend the bullish move, potentially targeting the 160.00 psychological resistance.
It is recommended to use the 4H MA20 or the 1D MA5 as support levels, going long at the lows.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Buy
Entry Price: 156.85
Target Price: 160.10
Stop Loss: 155.20
Valid Until: December 5, 2025 23:00:00
Support: 156.80, 155.45
Resistance: 158.86, 160.00
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