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USD/JPY grinds higher as DXY slips back below 99
Forex
Summary:
USD/JPY is firm near 154.5–155.0 as the US Dollar Index softens toward the high-98s/low-99s and US 10-year yields hover around 4.09%. Market tone is shaped by a calmer VIX in the high-teens and a Bank of Japan path that remains gradual even as officials acknowledge a growing case for future hikes, leaving yen strength contained unless risk aversion spikes....
Buy
CLOSEDUSDJPY
End Time
154.626
Entry Price
155.250
TP
154.050
SL
154.535 +0.019 +0.01%
576
Points
Loss
154.050
SL
154.047
CLOSING
154.626
Entry Price
155.250
TP
Overview
Spot quotes in Asia show USD/JPY holding a tight 154.3–155.0 envelope after multiple sessions defending the mid-154s. The dollar backdrop is two-sided but not hostile to USD/JPY upside: DXY has retreated to ~99.0 after failing to sustain above 100 last week, while Treasury yields are steady near 4.09% as surveyed strategists see only modest upside absent fresh inflation shocks.
On the Japan side, the latest BOJ summary of opinions flagged more board members open to a near-term hike, yet communication still emphasizes caution, which tempers aggressive yen bids. The net effect is carry support intact for USD/JPY so long as DXY doesn’t spike and US yields remain anchored.
Market sentiment
Positioning is “risk-aware but not defensive.” The VIX sits in the 17–19 zone, consistent with orderly conditions rather than a dash for safe havens; in this regime, JPY typically underperforms high-carry peers unless BOJ surprises or equities wobble.
Political headlines in Tokyo point to gradualism rather than an abrupt tightening cycle, reinforcing a bias to fade yen strength on calm days while watching the dollar’s path around the 99 handle.
Technical analysis
Price is spending more time above the Bollinger mid-line than below and has repeatedly defended the 20-period mean on dips into the mid-154s, a continuation pattern that often precedes fresh upper-band checks toward the 155.0 region noted on public boards.
On Ichimoku, spot is rotating on or just above the cloud, with the Kumo top aligning as dynamic support around recent pullback lows; Tenkan is attempting to hold at or slightly above Kijun on rebounds, consistent with a shallow-pullback up-swing. Stochastic has been cycling higher from mid-range, and another %K cross above %D from the 40–50 band on a minor retrace would typically cue an upper-band extension. A sustained loss of the cloud would only neutralize the bias while DXY hovers near ~99; otherwise, dips that hold the cloud/Mid-BB confluence remain buyable. Real-time dashboards corroborate today’s 154.3–155.0 range.
Trade Recommendations
Entry: 154.35
TP: 155.25
SL: 154.05
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