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      USD/CAD firms above 1.40

      Gerik

      Forex

      Economic

      Summary:

      USD/CAD is stabilizing just above 1.40 as the U.S. Dollar Index hovers near 99.6 and WTI crude trades around $60...

      Buy

      USDCAD

      EXP
      PENDING

      1.40000

      Entry Price

      1.40750

      TP

      1.39600

      SL

      1.39967 +0.00108 +0.08%

      --

      Point

      PENDING

      1.39600

      SL

      CLOSING

      1.40000

      Entry Price

      1.40750

      TP

      Overview

      The macro mix tilts modestly in favor of USD on dips. DXY has been revolving around 99.5–99.7 in recent days rather than breaking lower, keeping broad USD conditions firm enough to blunt CAD strength. At the same time, crude’s latest prints near $60 imply a neutral terms-of-trade impulse for Canada rather than a strong tailwind.
      Policy remains a secondary anchor: the Bank of Canada cut the overnight rate to 2.25% on October 29 and signaled a measured approach from here, which prevents an outright CAD carry advantage from re-emerging quickly. This blend dollar steadiness, oil neutrality, and a recently eased BoC supports a buy-the-dip bias in USD/CAD while spot holds the round 1.40 handle.

      Market sentiment

      Positioning has shifted to opportunistic USD buying into support as traders respect the 99–100 DXY shelf and wait for the next U.S.–Canada data catalysts.
      Reuters’ early-November wrap noted how the loonie weakened when USD/CAD probed into the 1.41s after the Fed cut, highlighting sensitivity to dollar tone; since then, the dollar has consolidated while oil has lacked directional conviction, encouraging mean-reversion flows that fade CAD strength near lows rather than chase it. With no fresh BoC impulse and Canadian CPI not due until mid-December, the burden of surprise sits more on U.S. prints and dollar swings than on domestic CAD drivers, which typically supports USD/CAD on shallow pullbacks.

      Technical analysis

      USD/CAD firms above 1.40_1
      The intraday structure is constructive. Price has been spending more time above the Bollinger mid-line than below, and recent checks to the 20-period mean have attracted responsive bids, a pattern that usually precedes an upper-band retest if momentum holds.
      On Ichimoku, spot is rotating on or just above the cloud; repeated defenses of the Kumo top around the 1.399x–1.400x pocket define a tight intraday buy zone, with Tenkan attempting to stay at or fractionally above Kijun on rebounds. Stochastic is cycling up from mid-range; a clean %K cross back over %D from the 40–50 band on a shallow dip often cues an upper-band extension toward recent micro-highs. These reads align with today’s macro anchors of DXY near ~99.6 and crude near $60, which reduce the probability of a disorderly break lower. 

      Trade Recommendations

      Entry: 1.4000
      TP: 1.4075
      SL: 1.3960
      Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
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