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      US Data Outlook Clouded, Gold Rally Stalls, Bears Regain Control

      Eva Chen

      Commodity

      Summary:

      Gold prices edged higher from intraday lows during the European session on Friday, but remained below the 4,200 mark. With no major economic data due, growing caution from Fed policymakers on further easing has led traders to scale back expectations for another rate cut in December.

      Sell

      XAUUSD

      EXP
      PENDING

      4135.00

      Entry Price

      3863.00

      TP

      4215.00

      SL

      4018.69 -26.79 -0.66%

      --

      Point

      PENDING

      3863.00

      TP

      CLOSING

      4135.00

      Entry Price

      4215.00

      SL

      Fundamentals

      Gold edged up Friday before a brief pullback, heading for a weekly gain. A softer USD underpinned the gold, but hawkish Fed pushback pared rate-cut bets for December and capped the advance.
      Spot gold eased modestly in the European session. However, the price is set to close the week up over 4%, as markets are digesting the backlog of U.S. data released after the longest-ever government shutdown.
      If agencies cannot clear the queue, October CPI and payrolls may never be published, leaving Q4 with fewer benchmark data than usual.
      The rate outlook remains clouded, pricing only a 50% probability of a December cut. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari—who opposed the November reduction—said Thursday he is still undecided on the December policy meeting.
      "Fragmentary evidence shows underlying activity is more resilient than I expected," he told Bloomberg, justifying the October pause. "Since then, the data have been little changed. I can make a case either for a cut or for holding. we'll see."
      Kashkari's remarks place him among a growing chorus of FOMC voters who openly question—or outright oppose—another cut in December. Whether they can sway a majority remains uncertain, as several policymakers still see labour-market slack as the bigger risk.
      US Data Outlook Clouded, Gold Rally Stalls, Bears Regain Control_1

      Technical Analysis

      In Friday's European session, gold hit a confluence of technical supply: the Oct 13/20 weekly open/close cluster and the down-trend line at 1,424. Bulls failed, triggering a sharp reversal that handed control to bears and shifts the bias from higher to lower.

      Trade Recommendations

      Trade Direction: Sell
      Entry Price: 4135
      Target Price: 3863
      Stop Loss: 4215
      Valid Until: November 29, 2025, 23:55:00
      Support: 4134/4118/4097
      Resistance Levels: 4171/4190/4212
      Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
      You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

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