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Uptrend Tests Challenge Multi-Year Highs
Central Bank
Summary:
EURUSD registered a robust advance of over 1.2% on Monday, breaking through the 1.1500 mark and reaching its highest level since November 2021. Heightened concerns over a potential US economic recession have intensified the ongoing US dollar sell-off, thereby fueling the euro's ascent.
Buy
CLOSEDEURUSD
End Time
1.15029
Entry Price
1.18450
TP
1.13300
SL
1.12492 +0.00221 +0.20%
1729
Points
Loss
1.13300
SL
1.13295
CLOSING
1.15029
Entry Price
1.18450
TP
Fundamentals
The US dollar's sell-off continued unabated following the long weekend. EURUSD touched 1.1500 on Monday for the first time since November 2021, with the pair gaining over 1% on the day. Currently, market confidence in US economic policy is virtually nonexistent. The dollar, which has been at the core of a system established over eight decades, appears to be under increasing pressure.
The European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates for the seventh time in a year last Thursday in an effort to reduce borrowing costs. Recently, global market volatility related to trade has further strengthened the case for additional policy easing. The ECB noted that "increased uncertainty could dampen confidence among households and firms. Adverse and volatile reactions to trade tensions could have a tightening impact on financing conditions. These factors could further weigh on the euro area economic outlook." However, ECB President Christine Lagarde provided little guidance on future actions, reiterating that uncertainties remain too high for the ECB to make any commitments, with decisions to be made based on incoming data.
Market Outlook。What lies ahead for EURUSD? We believe that the Trump administration must exercise extreme caution when intervening in the overall state of the US balance of payments.
When considering measures that could abruptly reduce the trade deficit and expand the current account deficit, the impact on the capital account must be taken into account. A sudden narrowing of the US trade deficit implies a corresponding contraction in the capital account surplus. This shift indicates a decline in foreign demand for US bonds, which in turn exerts downward pressure on the US dollar while boosting non-US currencies.
However, it remains to be seen whether the US government can effectively and sustainably reduce the trade deficit through these "blunt" measures. How will global trade and the global financial system evolve in the future? It is premature to draw any definitive conclusions at this stage.
Technical Analysis
EURUSD broke above 1.1500 on Monday, resuming its upward trajectory and moving higher throughout the session.
The current rally originated from 1.0176, with the target level set at the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the 1.0358 to 1.0953 range, at 1.1694. Further gains could test the 1.1845 level.
On the downside, a break below the minor support at 1.1357 would turn the intraday trend neutral, leading to consolidation before another potential rebound.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Buy
Entry Price: 1.1450
Target Price: 1.1845
Stop Loss: 1.1330
Valid Until: May 06, 2025, 23:55:00
Support: 1.1500/1.1473/1.1387
Resistance: 1.1595/1.1694/1.1910
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