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Uptrend Intact, Await Data-Driven Breakout
Forex
Summary:
EURNZD remains within a well-defined 4-hour ascending channel. Bulls are reloading at the lower trend support. Keep stops below channel base; stay long while structure holds.
Buy
TradingEURNZD
EXP
2.02699
Entry Price
2.08630
TP
2.00530
SL
2.02676 +0.00044 +0.02%
0
Point
Flat
2.00530
SL
CLOSING
2.02699
Entry Price
2.08630
TP
Fundamentals
Data released last week showed that New Zealand’s third-quarter retail sales significantly exceeded expectations, rising 1.9% QoQ versus a consensus forecast of 0.6%. Excluding motor-vehicle sales, core retail sales still outperformed, up 1.2% QoQ against an expected 0.8%.
Statistics New Zealand noted that this was the largest quarterly increase in retail activity since late 2021, with broad-based gains across industries. Most sectors expanded in September.
Separately, the ANZ Business Confidence Index surged to an 11-year high of 67.1 from 58.1, while the survey’s Own Activity Outlook index jumped to 53.1 from 44.6—its strongest reading since 2014—indicating that the recovery is driven by a tangible improvement in real economic momentum rather than merely sentiment. ANZ stated that “signs of recovery are now visible,” with recent growth increasingly underpinned by actual economic activity.
Inflation signals, however, remain mixed. The share of firms planning to raise prices over the next three months rose from 44% to 51%, the highest since March. By contrast, the proportion expecting higher input costs edged down from 76% to 74%, while one-year-ahead inflation expectations stayed anchored at 2.7%. Taken together, these developments point to inflation pressures that are stabilising but still fall short of the disinflationary momentum that would prompt the RBNZ to initiate a fresh easing cycle.
Market outlook: The improvement in underlying fundamentals is reassuring and suggests the economic recovery is likely to persist. With the recovery under way and headline CPI sitting at the upper bound of the target band, we see no justification for further cuts to the Official Cash Rate “barring any unforeseen shocks”.
Technical Analysis
EURNZD maintains a robust upward structure on the 4-hour chart, currently quoted at 2.0283, with bulls still in control. The euro benefits from the ECB’s deferred rate-cut expectations, while the RBNZ’s latest easing has signaled limited room for further loosening, offering the Kiwi a near-term reprieve—though its underlying fundamentals remain fragile. Technically, the trend remains intact; as long as key support holds, price is well-positioned to retest the overhead resistance cluster.
Trade Recommendations
Trade Direction: Buy
Entry Price: 2.0254
Target Price: 2.0863
Stop Loss: 2.0053
Valid Until: December 20, 2025 23:55:00
Support: 2.0271/2.0077/2.0004
Resistance Levels: 2.0680/2.0753/2.0850
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