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Uptrend Could Resume from Key Support on XAUUSD
Commodity
Economic
Summary:
A sustained rebound potentially setting the stage for another move toward the all-time high near 3673.
Buy
PENDINGXAUUSD
EXP
3620.00
Entry Price
3670.00
TP
3580.00
SL
3646.60 +3.45 +0.09%
--
Point
PENDING
3580.00
SL
CLOSING
3620.00
Entry Price
3670.00
TP
U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose again in August, with headline CPI climbing to 2.9% year-over-year while core CPI held steady at 3.1%. The recent relief from falling gasoline prices is being offset by renewed price pressures in housing and food, while prices of consumer goods such as electronics and clothing are also trending higher as tariffs from the Trump administration begin to trickle down to consumers.
Money markets in the U.S. have now fully priced in three quarter-point interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) before the end of the year. The Fed is widely expected to deliver an initial 25 basis point cut at its policy meeting next week, with markets also anticipating two additional rate cuts at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings scheduled for October and December.
Adding to the dovish tone, initial jobless claims for the week ending September 6 surged to 267K, well above the consensus estimate of 235K and notably higher than the previous reading of 237K. This sharp increase underscores renewed weakness in the labor market, which could further strengthen the case for the Fed to move swiftly on policy easing.
According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, futures traders are now fully pricing in three rate cuts by year-end. Markets view a 25 basis point cut at the upcoming September 17 FOMC meeting as virtually certain, while the probability of additional cuts on October 29 and December 10 has climbed to nearly 95%.
Meanwhile, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data surprised to the downside, with headline PPI falling 0.1% month-over-month in August versus a forecasted 0.3% increase, bringing the annual rate down to 2.6% compared to the expected 3.3%. Core PPI also declined 0.1% on the month, missing expectations for a 0.3% gain and dragging the annual rate to 2.8% from a projected 3.5%.
On the political front, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee advanced the nomination of Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board in a 13-11 vote on Wednesday, sending it to the full Senate just ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. Miran, who also serves on the White House Council of Economic Advisers, is seen as supportive of faster rate cuts. However, his dual role has raised concerns about the Fed’s political independence.
Separately, the Trump administration said Wednesday it will appeal a federal judge’s ruling that temporarily blocked President Donald Trump from firing Fed Governor Lisa Cook. The case stems from allegations made prior to her confirmation, which the court ruled did not meet the “for cause” standard required under the Federal Reserve Act.
In addition, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revised down its annual benchmark payroll figures by -911K for the 12 months through March 2025, well below economists’ estimates of -682K, adding further weight to signs of labor market weakness.
Technical Analysis
XAUUSD is currently rebounding from its 100-period moving average on the 1-hour chart. If this support holds, the ongoing uptrend could resume from this zone, offering buying opportunities on dips. The 100-period moving average sits near 3630, while the 200-period moving average lies around 3578 — a level that has also acted as a solid support zone in previous pullbacks and could serve as the next downside target if the price weakens further.
Meanwhile, the RSI has dropped to 32, approaching oversold territory. Traders will be closely watching price action as it tests this support area, with a sustained rebound potentially setting the stage for another move toward the all-time high near 3673.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Buy
Entry price: 3620
Target price: 3670
Stop loss: 3580
Validity: Sep 19, 2025 15:00:00
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