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Upside Momentum Near Exhaustion; $3,400 Handle Looks Increasingly Fragile
Central Bank
Commodity
Summary:
Gold drew support from New York Fed President John Williams, who signalled room for rate cuts and praised Governor Lisa Cook, reinforcing the metal’s safe-haven bid.
Sell
CLOSEDXAUUSD
End Time
3397.96
Entry Price
3332.00
TP
3445.00
SL
3447.27 +30.40 +0.89%
4704
Points
Loss
3332.00
TP
3445.00
CLOSING
3397.96
Entry Price
3445.00
SL
Fundamentals
Gold extended its positive tone on Thursday, clawing back losses triggered earlier in the week by renewed threats to Fed independence. Spot XAUUSD pierced the $3,400 level in intraday dealings, up 0.15%.
Speaking to CNBC on Wednesday, Williams said policy rates are likely to drift lower over time, though he declined to offer a timeline for the first cut. “The economy remains fundamentally strong,” he noted, echoing the FOMC’s consensus that while growth has moderated, the labour market is “solid.”
“Should incoming data evolve in line with our dual-mandate objectives, a gradual reduction in the federal-funds rate would be appropriate,” Williams said. Markets continue to price an easing cycle commencing at the 18 September FOMC meeting.
Williams, while sidestepping direct comment on President Trump’s attempt to remove Governor Lisa Cook, lauded her integrity and commitment to the central bank’s statutory mandate. He argued that Fed independence is “critical for securing low inflation and long-run economic and financial stability.”
Market watch: Investor unease over the Fed’s autonomy and the latent risk of a U.S. inflation flare-up is underpinning bullion. If the President succeeds in dismissing Cook, the administration would gain a working majority on the seven-seat Board, fuelling fears that monetary policy could be politicised and further stoking safe-haven demand for gold.
A related concern is that perceived erosion of Fed independence could prompt premature easing, eroding market confidence and ultimately re-igniting inflation pressures.
Technical Analysis
On the four-hour chart, gold staged another leg higher on Thursday, breaching $3,400. Momentum indicators, however, suggest the advance is running on fumes, shifting attention toward a potential pullback to the $3,350 support zone. The market appears to be carving out a broad range around that level; a decisive break lower would open the door to a deeper retracement toward $3,335.
This bearish scenario is corroborated by the MACD: the signal line remains above the zero axis but has rolled over, while the histogram is printing a bearish divergence—classic signs that upward momentum is fading and a probe of recent lows is likely.
Trade Recommendations
Trade Direction: Sell
Entry Price: 3400
Target Price: 3332
Stop Loss: 3445
Valid Until: September 13, 2025 23:55:00
Support: 3388/3369/3359
Resistance Levels: 3405/3409/3420
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