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Upside Breakout Opens the Door for a New Bullish Push
Central Bank
Economic
Summary:
During the previous push, the RSI touched 71, moving into clear overbought conditions, but this minor pullback allowed the reading to reset significantly, showing that bullish strength recovers quickly.
Buy
PENDINGUSDCAD
EXP
1.38220
Entry Price
1.39080
TP
1.37700
SL
1.38536 +0.00140 +0.10%
--
Point
PENDING
1.37700
SL
CLOSING
1.38220
Entry Price
1.39080
TP
Trade tensions between the United States and Canada escalated over the weekend after Washington imposed 50% tariffs on select Canadian products following the breakdown of trade talks on Friday. In response, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced that Canada will implement retaliatory tariff measures starting September 8.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated that Canada declined to finalize the agreement under the terms previously established. For his part, Carney noted that while progress was made during discussions, it fell short of meeting Canada's objectives, criticizing last-minute changes introduced by Washington as unfair, economically damaging, and capable of undermining the credibility of any future agreement.
On the geopolitical front, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a new round of economic measures described as "unprecedented" against Iran. The sanctions target sectors considered strategic to the country's financing, including digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and maritime shipping. According to the Treasury Department, nearly 60 entities connected to Iran were sanctioned, including intermediary firms and vessels associated with the shadow fleet operating across the UAE, Hong Kong, China, Singapore, Switzerland, and several European nations.
The initiative, dubbed "Outcast", aims to restrict all potential revenue streams that Washington claims fund the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Bessent added that President Donald Trump is actively engaging with international leaders to foster greater economic isolation of Iran.
Following the announcement, U.S. Treasury yields experienced a mild pullback, with the 10-year note yield falling 3.5 basis points to 4.70%. This move partially reduced the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, offering a more supportive backdrop for gold.
Meanwhile, minutes from the Federal Reserve's most recent meeting showed that several committee members remain concerned over persistent inflation pressures. The document revealed that alongside officials such as Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan, other monetary policymakers would also be open to supporting additional interest rate hikes if inflation fails to show a sustained moderation in coming months.
Technical Analysis
USDCAD is moving within an upward trend that is currently approaching its descending trendline, aligned closely with the 200-period moving average at 1.3854, while the 100-period average sits at 1.3854 as well. If price breaks above the 200-period average and trendline, we could see an additional push toward the local resistance target at 1.3608, whereas optimal entries could emerge on a pullback to the local support line at 1.3821—an area that could attract buyers once again.
Turning to the oscillators, the RSI currently sits at 61; while firmly in bullish territory, it retains room to extend higher as a potential breakout builds. During the previous push, the RSI touched 71, moving into clear overbought conditions, but this minor pullback allowed the reading to reset significantly, showing that bullish strength recovers quickly. Meanwhile, the MACD presents a shallow bearish histogram, but the signal lines remain positioned well inside positive territory, keeping the path of least resistance tilted to the upside following a breakout.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Buy
Entry price: 1.3822
Target price: 1.3908
Stop loss: 1.3770
Validity: Sep 04, 2026 15:00:00
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