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Unilateral Surge! Gold Storms Toward $3,700
Economic
Commodity
Forex
Technical Analysis
Summary:
U.S. consumer-confidence and inflation-expectation data may offer fresh cues on the Fed's future rate trajectory, directly swaying dollar-denominated gold. Yet trade headlines will also be scrutinized closely, as the gold heads for a fourth consecutive weekly advance.
Buy
TradingXAUUSD
EXP
3651.00
Entry Price
3900.00
TP
3550.00
SL
3646.13 +2.98 +0.08%
0
Point
Flat
3550.00
SL
CLOSING
3651.00
Entry Price
3900.00
TP
Fundamentals
Despite a pause in the dollar's downtrend and a rise in risk appetite, gold attracted fresh safe-haven flows after news of new U.S. tariffs dented investor sentiment. The Financial Times reported late Thursday that Washington will press the G7 to impose sharply higher tariffs on Russian crude purchased by India and China, aiming to force Moscow into peace talks with Ukraine. Meanwhile, the market continues to price in three Fed rate cuts this year, with the potential for a sizable reduction at the September meeting.
According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, the market continues to price in a 92% probability of a 25 bp cut and an 8% chance of a 50 bp reduction at the Fed's September meeting. Dovish rhetoric remains intact as softening labour-market conditions eclipse sticky inflation, underpinning non-interest-bearing gold. The U.S. CPI rose 0.4% MoM in August, twice July's 0.2% pace, lifting the annual inflation rate to 2.9%, in line with consensus. Later today, U.S. consumer-confidence and inflation-expectation prints could offer fresh cues on the Fed's rate trajectory and, by extension, USD-denominated gold. Trade headlines will also be scrutinised, while the gold is on track for a fourth consecutive weekly advance.
Labor-market data fell short of expectations again, pressuring the U.S. dollar index. Initial jobless claims for the first week of September jumped by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest level since October 2021 and well above consensus. The print is notable for two reasons: (i) the single-week increase is the largest in nearly three years, pointing to a rapid contraction in labour demand; and (ii) unadjusted claims in Texas surged by 15,300, suggesting a regional or sector-specific—possibly energy- or tech-related—deterioration in employment conditions. While continuing claims came in marginally below forecast, indicating that long-term unemployment has yet to deteriorate, the abrupt spike in initial claims is typically viewed as an early-cycle signal of an economic inflection point.
Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart, gold pierced the upper Bollinger band but was quickly rejected. After finding support at the lower band, it rebounded sharply. The MACD fast-slow line has printed a golden cross and an "angel-kiss" continuation pattern. RSI reads 66, signalling strong bullish momentum that is likely to retest the recent 3,675 high and possibly extend beyond 3,700. A renewed slide below 3,610 would open room for a probe toward the EMA200 at 3,581.
Weekly, price broke above the upper boundary of a symmetrical triangle and has since ridden the upper Bollinger band higher. The bands are widening, the moving-average stack is fanning upward and MACD has registered a golden cross. RSI at 72 is in overbought territory, leaving the market vulnerable to a pullback. Overall, a throwback to the triangle's former resistance-turned-support is probable before the next leg up. Provided the EMA12 holds, the up-trend remains intact.
In conclusion, the advised trading strategy is to buy dips and favour longs.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Buy
Entry Price: 3651
Target Price: 3900
Stop Loss: 3550
Support: 3600/3550/3400
Resistance: 3700/3800/3900
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