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Tightening CADCHF Triangle Pattern Signals Imminent Trend Resolution
Forex
Economic
Summary:
The histogram is currently printing green bars that have gained significant depth, while the signal lines have successfully reclaimed territory above the neutral baseline.
Buy
TradingCADCHF
EXP
0.56832
Entry Price
0.57550
TP
0.56400
SL
0.56684 -0.00133 -0.23%
0
Point
Flat
0.56400
SL
CLOSING
0.56832
Entry Price
0.57550
TP
Last Friday, Statistics Canada reported an unexpected contraction in the labor market, with the economy shedding 24,800 jobs in January. However, a deeper dive into the figures reveals that these losses were entirely confined to part-time positions, suggesting a shift in labor composition rather than a systemic collapse. Paradoxically, the national unemployment rate dropped to 6.5%, its lowest level since September 2024, outperforming market consensus expectations of 6.8%.
This resilient unemployment figure has significantly mitigated downside risks regarding Canada’s growth trajectory and its broader policy outlook. Consequently, market participants have adjusted their expectations, cooling the anticipation for aggressive monetary easing from the Bank of Canada (BoC). By reducing the perceived need for a dovish pivot, the labor report has provided a stable fundamental floor for the Canadian Dollar.
Across the Atlantic, investors are maintaining a vigilant watch on Swiss inflation data for January, scheduled for release this Friday. Analysts currently project that annual inflation will remain muted at approximately 0.1%. In a recent address, Swiss National Bank (SNB) President Martin Schlegel highlighted the structural challenges posed by persistently low inflation and a 0% policy rate, reaffirming the central bank’s steadfast commitment to price stability within its 0–2% target range.
President Schlegel further emphasized that the SNB is monitoring the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) volatility with precision. He indicated a clear preference for intervening directly in the foreign exchange markets if necessary, rather than prematurely resorting to further interest rate cuts. This cautious stance is supported by the belief that inflation will gradually pick up in the coming months. Adding a layer of complexity, the SECO Consumer Climate Index for Switzerland showed a moderate improvement to -30 for the three months through January, up from -37 in December. While the survey reflects lingering skepticism regarding the broader economic outlook, there is a visible improvement in sentiment regarding personal financial situations and a rising willingness to engage in major purchases.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, CAD/CHF is currently oscillating within a well-defined triangle formation. This consolidation follows a vigorous bullish impulse that originated on January 27 at the 0.5596 handle and reached a local peak of 0.5716 on February 2.
This peak currently defines the upper boundary of the triangle, characterized by a descending trendline that has consistently acted as a technical ceiling. As the price action compresses within this tightening structure, we are approaching a high-stakes decisive phase. A sustained breakout above the upper trendline would likely validate a bullish continuation, potentially propelling the pair toward the 0.5755 level, which stands as the most significant area of overhead resistance.
On the 2-hour (H2) chart, the 100 and 200-period Moving Averages are situated at 0.5687 and 0.5720, respectively. Given their proximity to current price action, a decisive close above the 200-period MA could act as a catalyst to accelerate the bullish momentum.
Our momentum analysis via the MACD provides further encouragement for the bulls. The histogram is currently printing green bars that have gained significant depth, while the signal lines have successfully reclaimed territory above the neutral baseline. This technical setup clears the path for a renewed upward move from this consolidation zone. Conversely, traders should remain cautious; a breakdown beneath the lower ascending trendline would invalidate the current bullish thesis and open the door for a deeper corrective phase.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Buy
Entry price: 0.5681
Target price: 0.5755
Stop loss: 0.5640
Validity: Feb 24, 2026 15:00:00
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