The New York Fed Manufacturing Index surged to 18.7 in November, hitting a nearly one-year high and far exceeding the market expectation of 6. Meanwhile, the S&P Global Services PMI remained in a strong expansionary range at 55. Together, these data points paint a picture of a still-healthy economy. Although there are some mild signs of labor market softening—such as initial jobless claims rising to a two-month high and the unemployment rate inching up to 4.4%—these changes are more indicative of a potential "soft landing" rather than a sharp economic downturn. This fundamental backdrop significantly reduces gold's appeal as a safe haven and explains why rising expectations for interest rate cuts fail to drive gold prices higher. Holdings in the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, decreased by 3.43 tons to 1,040.57 tons last week. This ongoing outflow suggests that institutional investors are adopting a cautious stance ahead of key events. At the same time, positive signals on the geopolitical front have also somewhat weakened the demand for gold as a hedge against geopolitical risks. Reports indicate that U.S. and Ukrainian representatives made "progress" during talks in Geneva, with a potential peace plan that may address Ukraine's core interests. This easing of geopolitical tensions further undermines gold's safe-haven support.

On Friday, New York Fed President John Williams stated that the Federal Reserve could still cut interest rates in the near term without jeopardizing its inflation target. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now see a nearly 74% chance of a rate cut at the December meeting, up from 40% last week. Lower interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, thereby supporting the price of the non-yielding precious metal. However, other Fed officials maintain a hawkish stance. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Boston Fed President Susan Collins have called for keeping policy rates unchanged "for a time." Traders will be paying closer attention to mixed economic signals and delays in the release of key inflation data. The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) and retail sales data will be released on Tuesday. PPI is expected to show a month-over-month increase of 0.3%, while retail sales are forecasted to rise by 0.4%. Any signs of rising inflation could weaken market expectations for an interest rate cut, which in turn may boost the U.S. dollar and put downward pressure on dollar-denominated commodities.  

Based on the four-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating a triangle consolidation pattern with no clear short-term trend. The MACD forms a death cross, with both the MACD and signal lines pulling back to the zero line twice before turning downward again—a bearish signal. The RSI stands at 46, reflecting strong bearish sentiment. Key support levels are at $4000 and $3930. From the daily chart perspective, the MACD's bullish momentum is gradually weakening, even as the price fails to make new highs—this is a sign of a potential bearish divergence. The likelihood of continued short-term downside is relatively high. Support levels include the Bollinger Lower Band and the 50-day EMA, at $3920 and $3964, respectively. The RSI is at 50, placing the price in a neutral zone, though recent highs have been gradually declining. It is recommended to sell at highs.

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 4064

Target price: 3600

Stop loss: 4390

Support: 3900/3800/3600

Resistance: 4380/4500/5000