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The Battle Rages on! Gold Begins a Second Test of Its Lows
Summary:
In an address to the nation, US President Trump warned that Iran would face a ‘devastating blow’ if it failed to reach an agreement within the next two to three weeks.
Buy
PENDINGXAUUSD
EXP
4370.00
Entry Price
5000.00
TP
4000.00
SL
4675.97 -81.83 -1.72%
--
Point
PENDING
4000.00
SL
CLOSING
4370.00
Entry Price
5000.00
TP
Fundamentals
Technical Analysis
Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, commented on the US March PMI data, stating that against the backdrop of the outbreak of war in the Middle East, the US manufacturing sector has demonstrated encouraging resilience, with business confidence in output over the coming year remaining strong so far. This resilience stems partly from reduced concerns over government policy, whilst also indicating that manufacturers expect the impact of the war to be short-lived and limited. However, he also noted that uncertainty remains, as the conflict is still in its early stages; surging prices and delivery delays have already cast a shadow over the outlook, potentially driving up inflation, dampening demand and hampering supply chains. Driven by soaring oil prices, input costs for factories have risen sharply, and supplier delays are more widespread than at any time since October 2022. Consequently, some manufacturers are building up inventories to cope with potential future price rises or supply shortages, whilst recruitment has virtually stalled to reduce labour costs, highlighting concerns that the war could cause problems for factories in the coming weeks.
Sources have revealed that the Trump administration is preparing to adjust its steel and aluminium tariff regime, maintaining a 50% tariff on bulk steel and aluminium products whilst imposing a 25% tariff on finished goods manufactured using imported steel and aluminium. This policy adjustment aims to strike a balance between protecting the domestic raw materials industry and maintaining the competitiveness of downstream manufacturing, but may further exacerbate trade friction and imported cost pressures. On the monetary policy front, Federal Reserve officials have continued to strike a cautious tone. Musalem, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, stated that there is no immediate need for the Fed to adjust its interest rate stance, whilst warning that inflation risks linked to the war in the Middle East are on the rise. Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Barkin, meanwhile, noted that businesses still view high oil prices as a short-term disruption, and there are currently no clear signs that high oil prices have led consumers to cut back on spending or altered public inflation expectations in a worrying manner. The remarks from both officials collectively suggest that, in the current complex environment, the Federal Reserve is inclined to ‘stand pat’ and continue to monitor the actual transmission effects of geopolitical conflicts on inflation and the economy.
Trading Recommendations
On the four-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing and the moving averages are flattening. A death cross has formed on the MACD, with the fast and slow lines retracing towards the 0-line; as they are currently some distance away, this suggests the correction is not yet complete. The RSI stands at 48, indicating the market has entered a wait-and-see zone. On the daily chart, prices have rebounded to the 50-day EMA but are facing resistance; there is a high probability they will fall back towards the 200-day EMA, around the 4,250 level. The RSI stands at 42, reflecting strong market pessimism. The recommended strategy is to go short first, then long.
Trading Recommendations
Trade direction: Buy
Entry price: 4370
Target price: 5000
Stop-loss price: 4000
Support levels: 4225/4100/4000
Resistance levels: 5000/5100/5600
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