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Technical Pullback to Support May Reinvigorate the Current AUDCHF Bullish Drive
Forex
Economic
Summary:
A successful defense of this floor would offer high-value buying opportunities for traders looking to capitalize on the next bullish leg.
Buy
PENDINGAUDCHF
EXP
0.54300
Entry Price
0.55200
TP
0.53800
SL
0.54873 -0.00115 -0.21%
--
Point
PENDING
0.53800
SL
CLOSING
0.54300
Entry Price
0.55200
TP
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivered a 25-basis point hike on February 3, raising the official cash rate to 3.85%, a decision that was perfectly in sync with the broader market consensus. Accompanying this move, the central bank revised its short-term economic outlook, now forecasting growth at 2.1% and inflation at 4.2% by June 2026. These revisions represent a significant increase from previous estimates of 1.9% and 3.7%, respectively. The RBA’s updated projections are anchored in the hawkish assumption that the cash rate will likely peak at 4.2% by the end of 2026.
Despite this tightening stance, internal sentiment remains brittle. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Sentiment Index has declined for three consecutive months, highlighting the persistent strain that elevated interest rates are placing on household discretionary spending. This weakening consumer backdrop strengthens the case for a potential pause in the RBA’s tightening cycle at the upcoming March meeting. Meanwhile, the latest NAB Business Survey offered conflicting data; while business confidence edged slightly higher to +3, overall business conditions moderated to +7. Although capacity utilization remains 1.5 percentage points above its long-term average at 82.9%, it is important to note that this data does not yet account for the impact of the most recent rate hike.
On the other side of the pair, market participants are closely monitoring Swiss inflation data for January, which is scheduled for release this Friday. Analysts currently anticipate that annual inflation will remain muted at approximately 0.1%. In a recent address, Swiss National Bank (SNB) President Martin Schlegel highlighted the unique structural challenges posed by a persistently low-inflation environment and a 0% policy rate, reaffirming the SNB's commitment to price stability within its 0–2% target range. President Schlegel indicated a preference for direct foreign exchange intervention over premature interest rate cuts, banking on a gradual pickup in inflation in the coming months.
Technical Analysis
AUDCHF is currently entrenched in a vigorous primary uptrend. The most effective approach in this environment is utilizing technical retracements to join the prevailing momentum. The price is currently oscillating within a well-defined Ascending Channel and is approaching the upper boundary of this structure.
This proximity to the channel's ceiling suggests that a technical correction is likely in the near term. A potential retracement would target the 0.5430 handle, which represents a critical local support zone. A successful defense of this floor would offer high-value buying opportunities for traders looking to capitalize on the next bullish leg.
On the 4-hour (H4) chart, the 100 and 200-period Moving Averages are situated at 0.5404 and 0.5368, respectively. These indicators are tracking the lower boundary of the channel, providing a dynamic floor for the current trend. Our momentum analysis via the RSI shows the indicator recently touched the 70 level, signaling overbought conditions that often precede a healthy pullback.
Simultaneously, the MACD continues to print bullish histogram bars with significant volume, and the signal lines remain comfortably above the neutral baseline. Given this technical confluence, the most prudent strategy is to wait for a corrective move to provide a better risk-to-reward entry point. As long as the pair remains within its ascending structure, the technical bias remains firmly bullish.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Buy
Entry price: 0.5430
Target price: 0.5520
Stop loss: 0.5380
Validity: Feb 24, 2026 15:00:00
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