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Sum AB=CD
Commodity
Economic
Summary:
Powell dashes market hopes, gold reaches new all-time high.
Buy
CLOSEDXAUUSD
End Time
3325.40
Entry Price
3450.00
TP
3283.00
SL
4299.39 +20.10 +0.47%
9151
Points
Profit
3283.00
SL
3416.91
CLOSING
3325.40
Entry Price
3450.00
TP
Fundamentals
Risk-aversion sentiment resurfaced overnight. Gold prices touched a new all-time high of $3,357 per ounce on Thursday morning before retracing some of the previous day's gains. However, downside remains limited.
According to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released on Wednesday, as of February, 14 U.S. states have seen the number of unemployed individuals exceed job openings, the highest level since April 2021. This indicates that the U.S. labor market is becoming increasingly challenging.
Subsequently, Powell's remarks further weighed on the market. He reiterated that the Fed will adopt a wait-and-see stance, considering rate cuts only when the economic situation becomes clearer. Additionally, he highlighted the dilemma facing the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with inflation and economic growth targets in conflict. This has been interpreted as raising concerns over stagflation. Moreover, Powell dismissed the possibility of a "Fed Put," emphasizing that market operations are orderly and in line with expectations.
The U.S. Dollar Index fell 1% during the day, approaching a three-year low. As market risk-aversion sentiment surged, gold prices rallied sharply.
Looking ahead, the European Central Bank (ECB) is set to hold its monetary policy meeting today. The market widely expects a 25-basis-point rate cut. If the ECB rate cut materializes, it may provide some support to the U.S. dollar, thereby limiting the upside potential for gold prices. Traders should be wary of the risk of a pullback after a sharp rally.
Technical Analysis
Gold prices initiated a new round of gains from the support level of $3,195. Recent concerns over economic recession and trade wars have propelled gold prices to break through the $3,250 resistance level, followed by an accelerated upward movement.
On the 4-hour chart, despite the partial retracement of earlier gains during the European session, prices remain well above the MA200. Additionally, the CD segment of the AB=CD pattern has only traversed half of its projected distance. As part of the symmetrical rise, this upward move is likely to conclude around the $3,470 price zone. (It is worth noting that the rally that began at $2,970 has been relatively brief, and the CD segment is expected to accelerate.)
On the upside, the next major resistance level is in the $3,365 area. A clear breakout above the $3,365 resistance could pave the way for further gains. Subsequently, the key resistance level may be around $3,380. A breach of this level would likely prompt a test of the secondary target zone at $3,420.
On the downside, the initial support level is at $3,306, with the next key support around $3,285, followed by $3,240.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Buy
Entry Price: 3322
Target Price: 3450
Stop Loss: 3283
Valid Until: May 2, 2025, 23:55:00
Support: 3288/3277/3264
Resistance: 3365/3378/3410
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