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Strong Resistance Could Trigger a Downward Pullback
Central Bank
Commodity
Summary:
A decisive break lower could therefore validate the correction and set the stage for a deeper retracement before bulls attempt to regain control.
Sell
CLOSEDXAUUSD
End Time
3409.75
Entry Price
3370.00
TP
3450.00
SL
3447.27 +30.40 +0.89%
4025
Points
Loss
3370.00
TP
3450.03
CLOSING
3409.75
Entry Price
3450.00
SL
President Donald Trump’s effort to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook is now moving into the courts, yet the White House has already begun preparing for her replacement. On Tuesday, Trump remarked, “We have some very good people for that position,” while pointing out that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is overseeing the search process for the next Fed Chair. Reports indicate that Stephen Miran—originally nominated to replace Adriana Kugler on the Fed Board—could instead be redirected to Cook’s seat for a longer term. Senate hearings for Miran’s nomination to succeed Kugler are expected to take place next week, adding further political intrigue around the central bank’s leadership.
Meanwhile, the second estimate of Q2 U.S. GDP revealed an annualized expansion of 3.3%, beating forecasts of 3.1% and improving from the prior 3.0% reading. Price indices were slightly softer: both the GDP Price Index and preliminary headline PCE prices came in at 2.0%, down from 2.1% previously. The preliminary core PCE price index rose 2.5% QoQ, just shy of the 2.6% estimate. At the same time, weekly jobless claims slipped to 229K, marginally better than the consensus of 230K and down from a revised 234K, signaling continued resilience in the labor market.
In housing, pending home sales fell 0.4% in July, a deeper decline than the 0.1% drop expected, though still an improvement from June’s 0.8% fall. The figures highlight ongoing weakness in the sector, weighed down by high borrowing costs and affordability constraints that continue to challenge buyers.
New York Fed President John Williams offered a cautious but balanced perspective, describing the U.S. as an economy that is “slowing, not stalling.” He noted that GDP growth has cooled to around 1.0%–1.5%, while hiring momentum has also moderated. Williams stressed that policy remains in a “moderately restrictive” stance, with rates still above neutral. He reiterated that if the economy evolves broadly as expected, interest rates will eventually need to move closer to neutral—suggesting that rate cuts could become appropriate over time.
Treasury yields extended their decline. The 10-year yield slipped 2.5 basis points to 4.215%, while U.S. real yields—derived from nominal yields adjusted for inflation expectations—fell three basis points to 1.785% at the time of writing. Futures markets continue to tilt dovish: according to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are assigning an 87% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, with an additional 25 bps reduction priced in by year-end.
Technical Analysis
Gold (XAUUSD) briefly reached 3423 before retreating, and the rejection from this level could mark the beginning of renewed downside pressure. Historically, the metal has struggled to sustain momentum above these levels, which has often triggered selling activity. The fact that this zone lies close to gold’s all-time highs further strengthens the case for profit-taking among market participants. If the price fails to break higher, a corrective move toward 3368 looks plausible. This area coincides with the 0.618 and 0.50 Fibonacci retracements, increasing the likelihood that a pullback gravitates toward this support zone before any fresh attempt at recovery.
The 100- and 200-period moving averages, located at 3360 and 3355 on the 4-hour chart, are tightly clustered together. This convergence signals that gold has been trading sideways for an extended period. Should the bearish rejection continue, it would reinforce the notion of a range-bound market. Moreover, the alignment of the moving averages with key Fibonacci levels adds confluence, making these areas potential magnets for price action. A decisive break lower could therefore validate the correction and set the stage for a deeper retracement before bulls attempt to regain control.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Sell
Entry price: 3410
Target price: 3370
Stop loss: 3450
Validity: Sep 05, 2025 15:00:00
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