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Strategic Rejection at Multi Month Trendline Could Trigger a Pullback
Forex
Economic
Summary:
This would likely drive the RSI into overbought levels, creating a much more attractive entry point for sellers looking to capitalize on a rejection.
Sell
CLOSEDUSDCHF
End Time
0.80400
Entry Price
0.79700
TP
0.80800
SL
0.79865 -0.00405 -0.50%
143
Points
Profit
0.79700
TP
0.80257
CLOSING
0.80400
Entry Price
0.80800
SL
The Swiss Franc continues to find underlying support rooted in shifting expectations regarding the Swiss National Bank (SNB). Swiss inflation edged up to 0.1% year-over-year in December, marking its first acceleration since July. Despite this uptick, the reading remains near the lower boundary of the central bank's 0% to 2% target range. This economic landscape reinforces the consensus that the SNB will likely maintain its policy rate at 0% in the coming sessions, with inflation projected to rise marginally alongside a broader economic recovery.
Simultaneously, major credit rating agencies are keeping a vigilant eye on U.S. institutional stability. Fitch Ratings recently reiterated that the independence of the Federal Reserve is a fundamental pillar supporting the U.S. sovereign credit rating. Similarly, S&P Global Ratings emphasized that the Fed's credibility is a cornerstone of American institutional strength. These high-level declarations serve to maintain a persistent political risk premium embedded within the U.S. Dollar.
Recent labor market data added a layer of complexity as Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) grew by 50,000, missing the market forecast of 60,000 and decelerating from the previous month’s 56,000. Despite the slower hiring pace, the unemployment rate tightened to 4.4%. Inflationary signals were equally mixed; while the monthly Core PPI stagnated at 0%, the annual figure climbed to 3%, surpassing estimates. On the consumer side, November Retail Sales rose by 0.6% month-over-month, beating the 0.4% projection and rebounding from October’s contraction.
Federal Reserve officials remain divided on the path forward. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic noted that inflation remains far from target, requiring restrictive policy, while Neel Kashkari of Minneapolis highlighted a stabilizing labor market amidst resilient growth. Conversely, Governor Miran and Philadelphia’s Anna Paulson adopted a more dovish tone, with Miran reiterating the need for 150 basis points of easing this year and Paulson suggesting the 2% target could be reached by year-end. Amidst these conflicting views, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee underscored that central bank independence remains the vital key to maintaining price stability.
Technical Analysis
The USD/CHF pair has been locked in a decisive bullish trend since bottoming at 0.7861 on December 24th. However, this recovery is now approaching its most significant technical challenge to date: a long-term descending trendline originating from November 5th of last year.
This trendline is characterized by a persistent series of "lower highs," indicating a dominant bearish structure on the higher timeframes. The price is currently gravitating toward the 0.8040 zone, where this trendline resistance converges. If the pair exhibits a bearish reaction at this juncture, it would likely signal the start of a healthy correction, as buyers take profits at a major historical pivot.
From a momentum perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently hovering at 53. Being near neutral territory, the indicator suggests there is still room for a final push toward the trendline. This would likely drive the RSI into overbought levels, creating a much more attractive entry point for sellers looking to capitalize on a rejection.
Furthermore, the 100 and 200-period Moving Averages are situated at 0.7938 and 0.7972, respectively. While they are currently trending below the price and supporting the immediate bullish impulse, they would act as primary downside targets and dynamic support zones in the event of a successful corrective reversal from the 0.8040 resistance area.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Sell
Entry price: 0.8040
Target price: 0.7970
Stop loss: 0.8080
Validity: Jan 27, 2026 15:00:00
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