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Sterling Rebounds Despite Soft UK Data, Yen Stays Under BoJ Policy Pressure
Forex
Summary:
Sterling underperformed amid UK fiscal concerns and growing BoE rate-cut expectations. JPY's upside remained capped by uncertainty over the BoJ's tightening path and a constructive risk tone in broader markets.
Buy
TradingGBPJPY
EXP
203.689
Entry Price
207.000
TP
199.750
SL
203.470 -0.335 -0.16%
0
Point
Flat
199.750
SL
CLOSING
203.689
Entry Price
207.000
TP
Fundamentals
GBPJPY traded with a mild bid on Thursday and oscillated near the two-week peak around 203.50, showing scant reaction to a batch of softer-than-expected UK macro releases.
Data published earlier showed the UK economy lost momentum in Q3, with headline GDP expanding just 0.1% QoQ—half the consensus 0.2%—fanning fears that cooling demand is tipping the economy toward stagnation. The breakdown revealed services output rose 0.2% QoQ, construction added 0.1%, while manufacturing contracted 0.5%, fully offsetting the modest gains elsewhere. Real GDP per capita was flat, underscoring the absence of any meaningful improvement in living standards.
Monthly indicators confirm a further loss of momentum in the UK economy. September GDP contracted 0.1% MoM, missing the consensus of a flat out-turn. The Ausgust was a zero printed (revised down from +0.1%), while July output was also revised to –0.1%. The September setback was driven by a 2.0% MoM slide in production, with motor-vehicle output plunging 28.6% and alone subtracting 0.17% from headline growth. By contrast, services and construction both managed a modest 0.2% MoM advance.
The data reinforce evidence of a pronounced cyclical slowdown and could push the Monetary Policy Committee to deliver an additional rate cut as early as December. Sterling, however, traded largely unchanged against the G-10 complex once the release crossed the screens.
The yen, meanwhile, derived no support from the UK figures and remains under its own weight. Reports that Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae has leaned on the BoJ to keep policy rates pinned to the floor have dampened already-limited expectations for a December hike, compounding selling pressure on the already-soft currency.
Technical Analysis
Intraday bias in GBPJPY remains neutrally skewed to the upside. On the topside, a break of the 204.22 resistance would confirm that the corrective leg from 205.30 has completed with a three-wave pull-back ending at 199.04. Clearance of 205.30 would then revive the larger uptrend that started from 184.53.
Conversely, a fall through the 201.36 minor support would swing the near-term bias back to the downside, targeting 199.04 and possibly lower to extend the correction.
Trade Recommendations
Trade Direction: Buy
Entry Price: 203.00
Target Price: 207.01
Stop Loss: 199.75
Valid Until: November 28, 2025, 23:55:00
Support: 202.33/201.76/200.65
Resistance Levels: 203.57/204.22/205.30
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