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Steady Rebound? GBP/USD Holds Firm Above 1.35
Summary:
In July, the U.K. labor market showed initial signs of stabilization, with the permanent job placements index rebounding to 50.0 from 49.1 in June, ending a 45-month downward trend.
Sell
TradingGBPUSD
EXP
1.35052
Entry Price
1.30000
TP
1.37000
SL
1.35048 -0.00021 -0.02%
0
Point
Flat
1.30000
TP
CLOSING
1.35052
Entry Price
1.37000
SL
Fundamentals
In the UK, the second-quarter GDP report due out on Thursday is also worth watching. Deutsche Bank’s UK economists expect GDP to decline by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in June, keeping second-quarter GDP growth at 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, though downside risks have increased; Barclays, meanwhile, forecasts second-quarter GDP growth of 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, while some economists believe growth for the quarter could range between 0.1% and 0.4%. Deutsche Bank analysts previously noted that, based on second-quarter performance, the UK’s economic growth is likely to remain among the highest in the G7. If the GDP data comes in better than expected, it will provide additional fundamental support for the pound; if it falls short of expectations, it may limit the pound’s upside potential.
The market currently expects the July CPI report to show no signs of overheating inflation. However, analysts expect the overall CPI to rise 0.1% month-over-month, up from a 0.4% month-over-month decline in June; the year-over-year growth rate is projected at 3.4%, slightly below June’s 3.5%. Core CPI, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, is expected to rise 0.2% month-over-month, unchanged from June; the year-over-year growth rate is projected at 2.5%, down from June’s 2.6%.
Technical Analysis
On the daily chart, the GBP/USD pair shows Bollinger Bands widening upward and moving averages diverging upward, indicating that the overall uptrend remains intact. The RSI stands at 61, suggesting that market participants are predominantly in a buying mood. On the four-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands have begun to narrow, moving averages have flattened, and the upward momentum of the MACD has weakened, making a decline highly likely. The RSI stands at 63, indicating that market participants remain largely optimistic. Strategically, look to sell on rallies.
Trading Recommendation
Trading Direction: Short
Entry Price: 1.351
Target Price: 1.3
Stop-Loss Price: 1.37
Support Levels: 1.32, 1.3, 1.28
Resistance Levels: 1.37, 1.38, 1.41
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