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Silver Extends Breakneck Rally on ETF Inflows and Record Chinese Exports
Traders' Opinions
Summary:
Silver surged above $54/oz this week, outpacing gold as tightening Chinese inventories, record exports, and strong ETF inflows fueled a sharp rally.
Buy
PENDINGXAGUSD
EXP
55.200
Entry Price
58.000
TP
53.000
SL
56.336 +2.954 +5.53%
--
Point
PENDING
53.000
SL
CLOSING
55.200
Entry Price
58.000
TP
Silver prices surged sharply this week, climbing from around $50 to more than $54 per troy ounce—a move that decisively outpaced gold and sent the Gold/Silver ratio tumbling to an annual low near 77. The metal’s outsized strength has shifted market attention firmly toward the white metal, which is benefiting from a potent combination of macroeconomic tailwinds, tightening physical supply, and resurgent investor appetite.
According to Commerzbank commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch, the magnitude of silver’s rally is no coincidence. Expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve could deliver a rate cut as early as the week after next have fueled broad-based gains across precious metals. However, silver’s more volatile and industrially sensitive profile has amplified its upside as easing financial conditions tend to boost demand for metals tied to manufacturing, electronics, and renewable technologies.
A significant piece of the bullish narrative stems from deepening supply tightness in China—by far the world’s largest consumer and processor of silver.Inventories registered on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) have dropped to their lowest levels in 10 years, while holdings on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) have fallen to their lowest in more than nine years. Bloomberg data, sourced from exchanges and brokers, confirms the steep decline.
The drawdown was accelerated by China’s record silver exports, totaling 660 tons in October, a level not seen in decades. These exports—reportedly flowing into London—were aimed at easing shortages in key Western hubs, particularly after supply tightness in October pushed London vault inventories to precarious levels.
Market strategists warn that if London’s immediate shortages are resolved and exports slow, a reversion of physical flows back into China could rapidly tighten supply in the West again. Such a shift would likely amplify volatility and keep prices elevated into year-end.
Investor participation has added another powerful layer to silver’s bullish momentum.Silver exchange-traded funds tracked by Bloomberg saw inflows exceeding 290 tons in recent days, drawing more physical supply out of the market. These inflows mark a sharp turnaround from last year’s prolonged outflows.
Since January, silver ETFs have accumulated more than 3,500 tons, with the bulk of that demand arriving over the first nine months of the year. The resurgence underlines growing conviction that silver’s undervaluation relative to gold may be narrowing as macro conditions shift toward looser policy.
ETF buying has historically acted as a major amplifier of silver rallies, and the latest data suggests speculative and long-term investors are re-entering the metal at scale.
Technical Analysis
From a technical standpoint, silver’s chart structure supports the bullish scenario. The metal has shown volatile intraday swings, but price action continues to uphold the dominant upward trend visible across short-term charts.
Silver is currently grinding along a supportive ascending trend line, repeatedly absorbing dips and regaining bullish momentum. Despite entering overbought territory on relative strength indicators, the market continues to generate constructive signals that typically accompany strong uptrends.
The next major hurdle sits at $54.35, a key resistance zone that bulls are attempting to break. A decisive close above this level could open the door toward $55.80 and potentially $58.00, especially if macro conditions remain supportive and ETF inflows persist.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
BUY SILVER
ENTRY PRICE: 55.20
STOP LOSS: 53.00
TAKE PROFIT: 58.00
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