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      Silver Breaks Below Key Support as Oversold Rally Stalls

      Warren Takunda

      Commodity

      Summary:

      Silver's rally loses steam as the US and China ease tariffs, undermining safe-haven appeal. Diminished Fed rate cut expectations and a shift in geopolitical risk sentiment weigh on XAG/USD, which hovers around $32.

      Sell

      XAGUSD

      End Time
      CLOSED

      32.000

      Entry Price

      30.500

      TP

      33.000

      SL

      32.967 -0.331 -0.99%

      1000

      Points

      Loss

      30.500

      TP

      33.003

      CLOSING

      32.000

      Entry Price

      33.000

      SL

      Silver (XAG/USD) came under renewed pressure in early Asian trading on Thursday, shedding its recent bullish momentum and trading near the $32.00 per troy ounce mark. The pullback comes as appetite for defensive assets fades amid a notable easing in global trade tensions and a recalibration of monetary policy expectations from the Federal Reserve.
      In a move that has reverberated across global markets, both Washington and Beijing have taken concrete steps toward de-escalating long-standing tariff hostilities. According to diplomatic and trade officials familiar with the matter, the United States has agreed to cut tariffs on a range of Chinese goods—from a punitive 145% down to 30%. In a reciprocal gesture, China will slash tariffs on U.S. imports from 125% to just 10%.
      The dramatic reduction in cross-border trade barriers is viewed as a material shift in bilateral relations and signals renewed diplomatic engagement between the world's two largest economies. President Donald Trump, speaking in a televised Fox News interview, hailed the progress as "remarkable" and suggested that the White House is actively exploring a potential direct summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping to finalize a broader trade accord.
      Michael Hart, President of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, echoed this optimism, stating that "a rollback in tariffs could reinvigorate supply chains, reduce input costs, and encourage foreign investment on both sides." Risk-sensitive markets responded in kind, with equity futures climbing and Treasury yields nudging higher, further undercutting demand for non-yielding assets like silver.
      Compounding the downward pressure on silver is a discernible shift in expectations for U.S. monetary policy. Investors had previously priced in multiple interest rate cuts in 2025, anticipating a more accommodative Fed amid tepid inflation data. However, the improving global risk backdrop has prompted markets to walk back some of these dovish bets.
      Still, softer-than-expected consumer inflation data for April injected a dose of ambiguity into the policy outlook. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a year-over-year increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) of 2.3%—below March’s 2.4% and slightly softer than economists’ consensus. Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.8%, matching expectations. On a monthly basis, both measures posted a 0.2% uptick.
      While the inflation data briefly softened the U.S. Dollar and lent marginal support to precious metals, the underlying narrative remains one of waning inflation pressures in the short term—especially before the new round of tariffs takes effect in May.
      Looking ahead, investor focus is shifting to Friday’s release of the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Survey—two high-frequency indicators that could shape market expectations around the Fed’s June meeting.

      Technical AnalysisSilver Breaks Below Key Support as Oversold Rally Stalls_1

      From a technical standpoint, silver has broken below a critical intraday support level near $31.90, halting its recent rally. This move triggered a corrective bounce as the metal sought to unload its oversold conditions on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which had slipped into extreme territory.
      Despite some early signs of a rebound, the broader technical setup remains fragile. XAG/USD continues to trade beneath the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA50), suggesting persistent bearish pressure on the short-term charts. Moreover, chart analysts are closely monitoring the development of a descending triangle pattern—a formation typically associated with downside breakouts. A decisive break below $31.90 would confirm the bearish continuation and potentially expose silver to further declines toward the $30.50 region.
      However, should silver manage to stabilize above the current support zone and reclaim EMA50 territory, it could challenge immediate resistance near $32.60, followed by the psychological $33.00 threshold.
      TRADE RECOMMENDATION
      SELL SILVER
      ENTRY PRICE: 32.00
      STOP LOSS: 33.00
      TAKE PROFIT: 30.50 
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