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Short-Term Weakness, But Uptrend Intact as Market Enters a Key Zone Summary
Summary:
Cooling risk sentiment combined with rising energy shock expectations is weighing on GBP/JPY. Price action is under pressure, with key support levels likely to determine the next directional move.
Buy
TradingGBPJPY
EXP
210.878
Entry Price
217.200
TP
209.000
SL
211.157 +0.121 +0.06%
0
Point
Flat
209.000
SL
CLOSING
210.878
Entry Price
217.200
TP
Fundamentals
On Thursday, GBP/JPY extended its pullback, retracing part of the previous session’s gains. Although the pair has not broken below the prior low, it dipped toward the 211.00 level during the European session, posting an intraday decline of around 0.2%, signaling weakening upside momentum.
The primary driver behind this pullback is the renewed deterioration in the risk environment. As tensions in the Middle East persist, market concerns over energy price shocks have intensified, putting pressure on risk-sensitive currencies.
Remarks from Donald Trump marked a key sentiment shift. He warned that if no agreement is reached within the next two to three weeks, Iran would face “severe consequences,” effectively dashing hopes for de-escalation. Meanwhile, reports suggesting that the UAE could become involved in tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz have further fueled fears of regional escalation.
Against this backdrop, the market narrative has shifted rapidly:
Escalating geopolitical tensions → Rising oil prices
Higher inflation expectations → Adjustment in real rate outlook
Declining risk appetite → Safe-haven flows into JPY
This chain reaction has exerted direct downward pressure on GBP/JPY.
On the UK side, policy expectations are also turning less supportive. Markets increasingly believe that the Bank of England could tighten policy as early as April. In the context of already fragile growth, this raises concerns about overtightening, further undermining the pound.
It is worth noting that while surging energy prices could theoretically weigh on Japan’s growth and reignite inflation—creating a stagflation-like environment—the yen is currently benefiting more from its safe-haven status. However, concerns over potential intervention by Japanese authorities may limit further JPY appreciation.
Technical Analysis
With the latest rebound, intraday price action has shifted to a neutral tone, suggesting the possibility of consolidation.
As long as resistance at 213.40 holds, downside risks remain intact
The corrective structure from 215.00 appears to be in its third phase
A decisive break below 209.61 would open the door toward 207.20 and potentially lower levels.
From a broader perspective, however, as long as 209.61 remains intact, the overall uptrend is not fully compromised. The current pullback can still be viewed as a correction within a larger bullish structure.
Trading Strategy
Direction: Buy
Entry: 210.61
Target: 217.20
Stop Loss: 209.00
Valid Until: May 1, 2026, 23:55
Support Levels: 210.19, 209.61, 209.18
Resistance Levels: 211.24, 211.43, 211.57
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