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Short-Term Downside Risk Has Increased, Given the Decline in Trading Volume and the Underlying Structural Weakness
Cryptocurrency
Summary:
The MVRV ratio is flattening, indicating insufficient short-term gains and the potential for significant price volatility. BTC price consolidation near US$108,000 reflects investor caution.
Sell
CLOSEDBTC-USDT
End Time
107445.4
Entry Price
103980.0
TP
110000.0
SL
109675.5 +547.3 +0.50%
25546
Points
Loss
103980.0
TP
110000.0
CLOSING
107445.4
Entry Price
110000.0
SL
Fundamentals
Bitcoin has once again captured the attention of investors as it approaches the US$108,000 threshold, a development that could potentially reshape its market dynamics. Despite the appreciation in value, on-chain metrics such as the MVRV ratio suggest that the asset is poised for its next significant move, following recent volatility.
Specifically, recent on-chain indicators suggest a potential shift in Bitcoin market sentiment. The MVRV ratio, in particular, has stabilized after a period of sharp decline, indicating a consolidation phase following previous fluctuations. This stabilization often signals a potential market re-entry, with investors currently adopting a wait-and-see approach, awaiting further market developments.
According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin's current market capitalization stands at $2.14 trillion, supported by a circulating supply of 19.88 million BTC. However, as prices have risen, the 24-hour trading volume has decreased by 12.25% to US$31.58 billion, reflecting investor caution. A volume-to-market cap ratio of 1.47% is considered relatively low, indicating moderate market volatility.
Technical Analysis
As Bitcoin's price action consolidates within the US$100,000 to US$110,000 range, its weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) is steadily ascending towards its upper trendline, fueling optimism for a bullish breakout and potential short-term all-time highs.
Specifically, Bitcoin's weekly RSI is approaching its upper trendline after rebounding from the lower bound of its range in April 2025. Historical data suggests that Bitcoin prices typically peak when the weekly RSI reaches this upper limit.
If Bitcoin's price continues its historical pattern, aligning with the weekly RSI's upward trajectory, it could potentially reach new highs around US$140,000.
However, our analysis indicates that the current upward trend is unsustainable. The short-term strength appears to be a temporary rally, as the market currently exhibits a four-hour bearish structure. Further upward movement is unsustainable unless the bulls can breach the US$108,371 resistance level.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Sell
Entry Price: 108,000
Target Price: 103980
Stop Loss: 110000
Valid Until: July 17, 2025 23:55:00
Support: 107236, 106361, 105133
Resistance: 108371, 108816, 109798
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