The probability of the Federal Reserve implementing a rate cut in September is approximately 90%, particularly following dovish remarks by New York Fed President John Williams on Wednesday. According to Reuters, Williams indicated that "interest rates may decrease at some point, but policymakers need to assess upcoming economic data to determine if a rate cut is appropriate next month." Following his comments, gold prices experienced a strong rebound on Wednesday, further supported by ongoing dramatic developments between U.S. President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Board Member Lisa Cook. CNBC sources reported that Lisa Cook may soon file a lawsuit in response to President Trump's attempt to dismiss her. Trump's continued attacks on the Fed's independence and dovish expectations could limit downside risks for gold in the near term.

Furthermore, the ongoing escalation of the global trade conflict may sustain the safe-haven demand for gold. Mexico and Canada plan to increase tariffs on China, while India faces U.S. tariffs of 50% on Russian oil imports. Japan's chief negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, has canceled his scheduled trip to Washington to discuss tariff issues. Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi Yoshimasa stated that technical disagreements have arisen, necessitating continued administrative-level negotiations. According to Kyodo News, no decision has been made regarding rescheduling the talks, although Reuters suggests Ryosei Akazawa may travel to Washington next week. Tokyo has explicitly indicated it will urge the U.S. to amend its reciprocal tariff orders and seek reductions on automotive and auto parts tariffs. The postponement of these negotiations underscores the fragility of trade talks even among close allies. Concerns over Federal Reserve autonomy and the latest U.S. tariff threats could mitigate downward pressure on gold prices, while conversely, they could be bearish for the U.S. dollar.

The 4H timeframe indicates that the gold price is oscillating above the EMA12, with an upward bias. If the price maintains support at EMA12, it is likely to surge directly toward 3400 or even 3410. Conversely, failure to hold this level may result in a decline toward the EMA200, approximately around 3352. The RSI value of 63 suggests a bullish market sentiment, but the MACD histogram's diminishing upward momentum and the potential for a death cross of the MACD line and signal line warrant caution against a possible pullback after a rally. In the 1D timeframe, the price is oscillating near the middle Bollinger Band within a triangular pattern approaching its final phase, indicating an imminent directional breakout. A break above 3452 could target 3500 or even 4000, while a fall below 3268 may lead to declines toward 3120 and 3100. The current strategy is to go short initially and then go long at the lows.

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 3408

Target Price: 3375

Stop Loss: 3439

Support: 3375, 3350, 3300

Resistance: 3410, 3439, 3452