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Safe-Haven Demand Strengthens, Key Support Under Pressure
Summary:
Driven by rising geopolitical risks and inflation expectations, the US dollar’s safe-haven appeal has strengthened again, pushing EURUSD into a continued pullback. In the short term, the pair is hovering near key support levels, with markets awaiting US economic data for further directional cues.
Buy
PENDINGEURUSD
EXP
1.15900
Entry Price
1.20590
TP
1.13700
SL
1.17169 +0.00347 +0.30%
--
Point
PENDING
1.13700
SL
CLOSING
1.15900
Entry Price
1.20590
TP
Fundamentals
EURUSD remains under pressure, dropping to as low as 1.1678 on Thursday. As US-Iran peace negotiations have yet to make meaningful progress, risk aversion has intensified, lifting the dollar to a one-week high and weighing on the euro.
Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz remain elevated. Iran continues to exert control over this critical global energy transit route, with reports indicating previous vessel seizures in the area. Meanwhile, ongoing US restrictions on Iranian ports are further disrupting oil supply expectations, pushing energy prices higher and exacerbating global inflation risks.
On the policy front, Donald Trump stated that the current ceasefire agreement will remain in place indefinitely, although Washington is still awaiting a new proposal from Iran—highlighting ongoing uncertainty.
From a macro perspective, persistent concerns over US inflation have reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain elevated interest rates for the remainder of the year. At the same time, Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh reiterated the importance of central bank independence, helping anchor policy expectations.
Looking ahead, market focus will shift to Initial Jobless Claims and PMI data, which should provide deeper insights into US economic resilience and act as key catalysts for near-term EURUSD price action.
Technical Analysis
EURUSD has extended its pullback from the 1.1849 high but is still holding above the key support at 1.1663. Overall, the short-term structure remains weak, though a decisive breakdown has yet to occur.
On the upside, a sustained move above 1.1790 could open the door for a retest of the 1.1849 high and potentially further gains.
On the downside, a confirmed break below 1.1663 would signal structural weakness, likely accelerating declines toward the 1.1406 region.
Overall, the pair remains in a range-bound environment with two-way trading opportunities, with direction hinging on a breakout of key support or resistance levels.
Trade Setup
Direction: Buy
Entry: 1.1590
Target: 1.2059
Stop Loss: 1.1370
Valid Until: 2026-05-22 23:55
Support: 1.1665, 1.1624, 1.1575
Resistance: 1.1723, 1.1869, 1.1849
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