News
7x24
Quotes
Economic Calendar
Video
Data
- Names
- Latest
- Prev.
Rising Hormuz Risks and Technical Reversal Could Drive Oil Prices Above $95 in the Medium Term
Summary:
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have escalated once again as the United States resumes maritime blockade measures against Iran, fueling concerns over potential disruptions to global crude oil supplies. With transit risks in the Strait of Hormuz increasing, supply shortage concerns are being repriced into the market, suggesting that WTI crude may maintain a bullish bias.
Buy
TradingWTI
EXP
79.273
Entry Price
95.800
TP
63.800
SL
79.253 +0.121 +0.15%
0
Point
Flat
63.800
SL
CLOSING
79.273
Entry Price
95.800
TP
Fundamentals
The Middle East has once again become the focal point of the market. The United States announced that it would resume maritime blockade operations against Iran starting at 4:00 a.m. on the 15th and stated that a 20% fee would be imposed on all cargo shipments involving Iran. The blockade applies to all vessels regardless of their flag and covers Iran's entire coastline, including major ports and oil export terminals.
Although the United States stated that it would not interfere with the normal passage of neutral vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to or from non-Iranian destinations, and humanitarian shipments would still be permitted following inspections, market concerns over regional security risks have intensified rapidly.
Shipping data showed that the number of oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz over the past 24 hours has fallen to its lowest level in nearly two months. Meanwhile, renewed military exchanges between the United States and Iran, coupled with several recent attacks on commercial vessels, have further heightened concerns regarding the stability of global energy supply chains.
In addition, rising sanctions and transportation risks have slowed Iranian crude sales, prompting some independent Asian refiners to shift purchases toward more competitively priced crude from Iraq, the UAE, and Qatar. The market is reassessing the Middle East's supply risk premium, with geopolitical factors once again becoming a key driver of higher oil prices.
Overall, as geopolitical risks continue to rise, expectations of supply disruptions are strengthening. Crude oil has re-entered a phase of geopolitical risk premium pricing and is likely to maintain a firm tone in both the short and medium term.
Technical Analysis
On the four-hour chart, WTI crude has formed a relatively standard inverse head-and-shoulders reversal pattern. The left and right shoulders have gradually taken shape over the past month, while the recent decisive breakout above the neckline at $72.37 officially confirms that the downtrend in place since May has ended.
Based on the measured move of the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, the distance from the head near $67 to the neckline at $72.37 projects an upside target around $92, broadly aligning with the key resistance area formed in early June. Should the breakout receive further confirmation, WTI crude could extend gains toward the $95.00-$96.50 region.
In terms of moving averages, although the 100-day moving average remains below the 200-day moving average, the negative divergence between the two has narrowed significantly as prices continue to rebound, indicating the potential formation of a bullish golden cross in the coming weeks. Prices have already reclaimed both medium- and long-term moving averages, which may now serve as dynamic support levels during pullbacks.
Momentum indicators show that the stochastic oscillator has entered overbought territory, reflecting strong buying pressure behind the recent rally, while also signaling the possibility of short-term corrections or consolidation. A pullback toward the neckline support near $72.37 followed by stabilization could provide fresh buying opportunities for bullish investors.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also climbing rapidly and approaching overbought levels, indicating that buyers remain firmly in control. As long as the RSI does not develop a significant bearish divergence, the bullish trend is likely to remain intact.
Nevertheless, investors should remain alert to potential risks. Although market structure has improved considerably, large short positions established around $65.80 have not yet been fully unwound. As prices gradually approach the area above $88.00, profit-taking pressure may begin to emerge. Moreover, there remains the possibility that the United States and Iran could return to the negotiating table. Any easing in geopolitical tensions could lead to a rapid unwinding of the risk premium and limit further upside in oil prices.
Trading Recommendation
Trading Direction: Buy
Entry Price: 78.00
Target Price: 95.80
Stop Loss: 63.80
Valid Until: August 13, 2026, 23:55
Key Support Levels: 77.87, 75.77, 72.65
Key Resistance Levels: 85.37, 88.55, 91.84
Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.
Quick Access to 7x24
Quick Access to More Editor-selected Real-time News
Exclusive video for free
FastBull project team is dedicated to create exclusive videos
Real-time Quotes
View more faster market quotes
More comprehensive macro data and economic indicators
Members have access to entire historical data, guests can only view the last 4 years
Member-only Database
Comprehensive forex, commodity, and equity market data
English
English
العربية
繁體中文
简体中文
Bahasa Melayu
Bahasa Indonesia
ภาษาไทย
Tiếng Việt
Copyright © 2026 FastBull Ltd
Home News Columns 7x24 Economic Calendar Quotes Video Data WarehouseAnalysis AI Signal Pro User Agreement Privacy Policy About Us
Risk Disclosure
The risk of loss in trading financial assets such as stocks, FX, commodities, futures, bonds, ETFs or crypto can be substantial. You may sustain a total loss of the funds that you deposit with your broker. Therefore, you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources.
No consideration to invest should be made without thoroughly conduct your own due diligence, or consult with your financial advisors. Our web content might not suit you, since we have not known your financial condition and investment needs. It is possible that our financial information might have latency or contains inaccuracy, so you should be fully responsible for any of your transactions and investment decisions. The company will not be responsible for your capital lost.
Without getting the permission from the website, you are not allow to copy the website graphics, texts, or trade marks. Intellectual property rights in the content or data incorporated into this website belongs to its providers and exchange merchants.