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Rebound Blocked: EUR/USD Under Pressure at 1.16
Summary:
Germany’s economic performance has been a key driver of improved confidence in the eurozone. As Europe’s largest economy, Germany’s recent economic data has shown signs of stabilization.
Sell
TradingEURUSD
EXP
1.15407
Entry Price
1.12000
TP
1.17500
SL
1.15352 -0.00065 -0.06%
0
Point
Flat
1.12000
TP
CLOSING
1.15407
Entry Price
1.17500
SL
Fundamentals
In the euro market, data released on Monday indicated that economic confidence in the eurozone is gradually recovering. The eurozone investor confidence index returned to positive territory in August, marking its fourth consecutive month of growth, which suggests that market pessimism regarding the European economic outlook is clearly easing. The improvement in investor confidence stemmed primarily from a sharp rebound in assessments of current economic conditions, while indicators of future expectations also showed further improvement. The market believes that, with economic activity gradually recovering and some key economic indicators showing strength, the eurozone economy is emerging from its previous slump.
Last week’s July nonfarm payrolls data showed that U.S. employment unexpectedly fell by 23,000, while employment figures for the previous two months were also significantly revised downward, reigniting market concerns about a weakening labor market. However, this jobs report did not provide a clear direction for the Federal Reserve’s policy discussions. Market focus has shifted to this week’s upcoming U.S. CPI inflation data, which will serve as the most important reference point ahead of the September monetary policy meeting and will also be the key driver for the euro and the U.S. Dollar Index to break out of their recent range-bound pattern.
Technical Analysis
On the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands for the EUR/USD pair are widening upward, and the moving averages are diverging upward, indicating that the overall uptrend remains intact. The MACD fast and slow lines continue to trade above the 0-axis, and the RSI stands at 59, indicating that the market is in an optimistic mood. On the four-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, moving averages are flattening, and prices are consolidating near the middle Bollinger Band. The upward momentum of the MACD is waning, with a bearish divergence signal emerging, suggesting a high probability of a decline. The RSI stands at 51, indicating that market participants are largely adopting a wait-and-see approach. Strategically, look to sell on rallies.
Trading Recommendation
Trading Direction: Short
Entry Price: 1.154
Target Price: 1.12
Stop-Loss Price: 1.175
Support Levels: 1.14, 1.13, 1.12
Resistance Levels: 1.17, 1.2, 1.21
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