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RBA Minutes Signal Caution, while AUD Strengthens Short-Term but Remains Cautious Mid-Term
Central Bank
Summary:
The Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) meeting minutes signaled caution, stating that inflation may intensify in the third quarter.
Buy
TradingAUDUSD
EXP
0.65170
Entry Price
0.67060
TP
0.64000
SL
0.65003 +0.00089 +0.14%
0
Point
Flat
0.64000
SL
CLOSING
0.65170
Entry Price
0.67060
TP
Fundamentals
During the European session on Wednesday, the AUDUSD rose 0.5% to around 0.6520. The AUD outperformed other currencies as markets anticipated the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is unlikely to implement aggressive monetary easing in the near term.
The minutes of the RBA's September meeting confirmed the soundness of its policy stance, with board members concluding that "there is no immediate need to lower" the cash rate. The Board unanimously agreed that economic data and forecasts since August support maintaining the current restrictive level, while emphasizing that decision-making will remain “cautious and data-dependent.”
The discussion focused on inflation risks, particularly following the strong monthly CPI growth in July and August. Committee members acknowledged that these data are incomplete and volatile, but noted that unexpected increases in market services and housing costs suggest the September quarterly CPI may exceed the August forecast.
Meeting minutes revealed growing concerns that if this pattern persists, the Bank of England's assumptions regarding the balance between aggregate demand and aggregate supply may prove overly optimistic. Committee members also cited lessons from overseas experiences where persistently elevated inflation in the services sector sounded an alarm for adjusting domestic policy.
Nevertheless, the Executive Committee acknowledged that risks remain "two-sided". On the upside, consumption recovery could outpace expectations, potentially intensifying capacity pressures. On the downside, members highlighted the drag from weak consumer confidence, slowing job growth, and subdued wage indicators.
A balanced view suggests that the RBA will proceed cautiously in the coming months, awaiting confirmation from the full third-quarter inflation report before deciding at its November meeting whether further policy easing is warranted.
Technical Analysis
The AUDUSD initially shifted to neutral intraday movement and is now showing signs of a rebound. A break above the 0.6628 resistance level would sustain the recent bullish momentum and pave the way for a retest of the 0.6706 high.
However, a break below 0.6439 will test the 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.6706, located at 0.6403. A sustained breach of this support level will open the path to the 61.8% retracement at 0.6216.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Buy
Entry Price: 0.6500
Target Price: 0.6706
Stop Loss: 0.6400
Valid Until: October 30, 2025 23:55:00
Support: 0.6497, 0.6472, 0.6440
Resistance: 0.6533, 0.6572, 0.6612
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