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Rate Hike Locked In! GBPUSD Set to Stabilize
Summary:
As elevated energy prices continue to stoke inflation concerns, the Bank of England (BoE) hinted earlier this month that a rate hike could come as early as April.
Buy
CLOSEDGBPUSD
End Time
1.32736
Entry Price
1.37000
TP
1.32000
SL
1.31826 -0.00001 0.00%
736
Points
Loss
1.32000
SL
1.31997
CLOSING
1.32736
Entry Price
1.37000
TP
Fundamentals
Money markets now expect the BoE to raise rates as many as three times this year, a sharp reversal from pre-conflict expectations of two rate cuts in 2026.
A closely watched monthly survey showed that British consumer confidence slipped to its lowest level in nearly a year in March, as households feared the war in Iran could hit the economy and drive a sharp rise in prices.
The GfK Consumer Confidence Index fell to -21 in March from -19 in February, its lowest reading since April 2025, although the decline was smaller than economists polled by Reuters had forecast. The index is the longest-running survey of its kind in the UK.
Global oil prices have surged 50% since the conflict erupted in late February, and many British households are already feeling the pinch from higher gasoline prices.
While the government has announced limited support for low-income households reliant on heating oil, most of the impact will only fully feed through in July, when the regulated household energy price cap takes effect.
The BoE forecasts inflation will rise to around 3.5% by mid-year. The OECD expects UK average inflation to reach 4% in 2026, an upward revision larger than that for most other economies.
Technical Analysis
On the daily timeframe for GBPUSD, Bollinger Bands are expanding downward and MAs are trending lower, confirming the overall bearish structure remains intact. Support is located near the previous low (1.321) and the psychological level (1.32).
The MACD has formed a death cross, with the signal lines remaining below the zero level, but downward momentum has weakened, signaling a potential rebound at any time. The RSI stands at 41, with investor sentiment tilted toward selling.
On the 4-hour chart, Bollinger Bands are expanding lower and MAs are pointing down, with the bearish trend unchanged. The RSI is at 35, pushing the pair into oversold territory and setting the stage for a technical rebound.
Therefore, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended.
Trade Recommendations
Trade Direction: Buy
Entry Price: 1.326
Target Price: 1.37
Stop Loss: 1.32
Support: 1.32/1.3/1.28
Resistance: 1.35/1.38/1.41
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