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Price Trades Within a Descending Channel, Key Range at Risk of Breakdown
Summary:
Amid a strengthening U.S. dollar and rising macro uncertainty, Bitcoin continues its downward trajectory, with the overall structure remaining bearish. Technically, price action is still confined within a descending channel, with limited rebound momentum, suggesting a higher probability of a downside breakout and an extension of losses in the near term.
Sell
TradingBTC-USDT
EXP
66770.0
Entry Price
38250.0
TP
74500.0
SL
66839.1 -120.9 -0.18%
0
Point
Flat
38250.0
TP
CLOSING
66770.0
Entry Price
74500.0
SL
Fundamentals
On Friday, Bitcoin extended losses from the previous session, declining from around $67,400 to near $66,300. From a session perspective, recent volatility has been concentrated during active U.S. trading hours, where macro data and risk sentiment exert stronger influence on price action.
U.S. March employment data came in stronger than expected, with job growth exceeding forecasts and the unemployment rate falling to 4.3%. Following the release, the U.S. Dollar Index surged sharply, exerting direct pressure on USD-denominated risk assets, including Bitcoin. From a liquidity standpoint, the dollar’s short-term strength is reducing the relative appeal of crypto assets.
At the same time, geopolitical risks—particularly uncertainties surrounding Iran—are intensifying defensive market positioning. While strong labor data may support short-term economic expectations, the uncertainty tied to potential conflicts raises concerns about the sustainability of labor and economic conditions. This combination of “strong data + high uncertainty” typically caps upside in risk assets.
From a capital flow perspective, the past month has shown clear signs of hesitation. There has been no sustained inflow of funds, indicating a lack of fundamental catalysts to support further upside at current price levels.
In the short term, the key range remains $66,000–$70,000. A confirmed breakdown below this range would signal the end of consolidation, potentially allowing bears to dominate the next phase of price action.
Technical Analysis
On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin continues to trade within a well-defined descending channel, characterized by lower highs and lower lows—a classic bearish structure. Although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has shown some recovery, avoiding oversold territory, the rebound lacks strength and has failed to generate a meaningful reversal signal.
The primary issue at present is weak momentum. Even with technical conditions favoring a bounce, price has failed to break higher, indicating insufficient buying interest. Such “weak rebounds” are typically continuation patterns within a downtrend rather than signs of reversal.
On the daily chart, the broader structure remains within a descending channel. The RSI has not yet entered extreme oversold territory, suggesting that there is still room for further downside rather than a completed correction.
Key levels to watch:
Resistance: $76,025, followed by $85,490 (major medium-to-long-term resistance zone)
Support: $56,620, followed by $46,680 (potential downside acceleration targets)
If price breaks below $66,000 with confirmation, the structure would shift from range consolidation to a trending decline, with bears potentially driving price quickly toward the $44,030–$38,250 region.
Trade Setup
Direction: Sell
Entry: 68,000
Target: 38,250
Stop Loss: 74,500
Validity: Until May 2, 2026, 23:55
Support Levels: 64,946 / 62,552 / 59,969
Resistance Levels: 69,294 / 72,103 / 74,083
Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
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