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Price Could Find Upside Rejection at Local Support Zone
Forex
Economic
Summary:
The MACD shows a histogram with virtually no depth, signaling indecision; however, the signal lines remain positioned within negative territory.
Buy
PENDINGGBPUSD
EXP
1.32200
Entry Price
1.33850
TP
1.31400
SL
1.32853 -0.00026 -0.02%
--
Point
PENDING
1.31400
SL
CLOSING
1.32200
Entry Price
1.33850
TP
The Bank of England will see heightened activity on Thursday, following June's Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation cooling to 2.6%, with services dropping to 3.6%. Wage growth continues to decelerate, and forecasters expect the upcoming Monetary Policy Report to show inflation peaking near 3% later this year.
In the United Kingdom, focus also remains centered on the new administration led by Andy Burnham. The appointment of John Healey as Chancellor of the Exchequer initially generated some caution among investors due to doubts regarding the new government's fiscal direction. However, Burnham has reiterated his commitment to current fiscal rules, though he maintains the intention to use available budgetary space to advance his economic priorities.
The latest British economic data have helped reinforce confidence in the growth outlook. The ILO unemployment rate held steady at 4.9% during the three months to May, defying forecasts of an increase to 5.0%. Likewise, jobless claims rose much less than expected, and the previous month's data were revised lower. Taken together, these figures reflect a more resilient labor market than anticipated and reduce pressure on the BoE to initiate monetary easing in the short term.
U.S. and Iranian military operations remain paused for a fourth consecutive day. While Washington maintains that Tehran requested this pause, Iranian authorities deny that formal negotiations are underway, beyond contacts held with Oman to ensure safe transit in the region. This backdrop has contributed to a temporary easing of geopolitical tensions, although uncertainty remains high.
On the monetary front, U.S. President Donald Trump renewed public pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at its meeting this week. Trump argued that recent inflation figures have been favorable, that costs continue to decline, and that prices could moderate further once Middle East tensions end.
For his part, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent defended the administration's tax cuts, noting they have provided significant relief to American households, particularly those with low and middle incomes.
Recent U.S. economic indicators offer mixed signals. The four-week moving average of ADP employment fell to 15,000 positions, reflecting a gradual slowdown in the labor market. At the same time, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 90.8 points in July from the 92.2 previously recorded, suggesting a slight deterioration in household sentiment.
Despite this, markets continue to expect the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders assign a probability close to 62% to this outcome.
Technical Analysis
GBPUSD is currently moving within a downward corrective phase after reaching a local high at 1.3558 amid a strong upward impulse that originated from 1.3142. This movement could extend further down toward the local support zone located at 1.3217. Meanwhile, the 100 and 200-period moving averages sit at 1.3388 and 1.3337, respectively. With price action already trading below these levels, we could see a fresh leg lower that takes the pair toward the aforementioned area.
Looking at the oscillators, the RSI dropped to the 26 level on July 23; although it has recovered rapidly despite modest price movement, a renewed downward drive cannot be ruled out. Simultaneously, the MACD shows a histogram with virtually no depth, signaling indecision; however, the signal lines remain positioned within negative territory, suggesting another move to the downside could unfold before finding a solid floor.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Buy
Entry price: 1.3220
Target price: 1.3385
Stop loss: 1.3140
Validity: Aug 07, 2026 15:00:00
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