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Powell Lifts USD, EZ Data Stays Soft
Forex
Summary:
EURUSD slid last week on a stronger USD and hawkish Fed pushback. Downside momentum persists, but key support at 1.1510 is capping losses.
Sell
TradingEURUSD
EXP
1.15095
Entry Price
1.12860
TP
1.16770
SL
1.15176 -0.00185 -0.16%
0
Point
Flat
1.12860
TP
CLOSING
1.15095
Entry Price
1.16770
SL
Fundamentals
The dollar’s fundamental tone stayed firm last week, fueled by Chair Powell’s hawkish push-back at the post-FOMC presser. By refusing to pre-commit to a December cut, he forced the market to pare back easing bets and lifted the USD across the board. A partial thaw in U.S.–China trade tensions removed another layer of USD-negative uncertainty. Even the ongoing government shutdown—and the resulting data blackout—has not deterred investors, with most desks arguing there is still no compelling short thesis in the near term.
On the euro side, EZ Q3 GDP printed a tick above consensus and a chorus of ECB speakers insisted the “economy is in a good place,” yet the cross still couldn’t shake off its lethargy. President Lagarde reiterated that policy is “appropriately restrictive” and that a near-term rate move is “unlikely,” a stance that should put a soft floor under the single currency but offers little upside traction against a resurgent dollar.
This week’s EZ calendar is light: final French and German manufacturing PMIs, German factory orders and EZ retail sales are the headliners. Unless the releases materially beat forecasts, any EUR lift is expected to be modest at best. In the U.S., the shutdown may delay official releases, but private-sector surveys will still steer sentiment. Traders will key on ISM manufacturing and services indexes and the ADP employment report. A soft payroll pulse would revive December cut pricing, while firm data would give the USD another leg higher.
Therefore, the Fed’s reaction function remains data-dependent, with the labour market and inflation trends still calling the shots.
Technical Analysis
EURUSD remains in a mid-term consolidation range, but the short-term bias tilts lower. Last week’s close near the range bottom highlights dominant selling pressure. Immediate support sits at 1.1510. A decisive break exposes the August low of 1.1391. Resistance lies at 1.1580 and 1.1600. A sustained breach would revive upside momentum.
Momentum gauges show fading bullish impetus, making intraday rebounds prone to reversal. While 1.1510 offers a technically robust floor that could initially limit downside, persistent USD strength may still force a probe lower.
Overall, the pair is short-term bearish, medium-term range-bound. Monitor payroll data and any Powell remarks for shifts in Fed expectations.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Sell
Entry Price: 1.1570
Target Price: 1.1286
Stop Loss: 1.1677
Valid Until: 18 November, 2025, 23:55:00
Support: 1.1510/1.1461/1.1393
Resistance: 1.1578/1.1637/1.1668
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