News
7x24
Quotes
Economic Calendar
Video
Data
- Names
- Latest
- Prev.
Pound Slumps as Bank of England Poised to Signal Extended Easing Path
Summary:
The British Pound faces selling pressure ahead of a pivotal Bank of England decision, with markets braced for a hold in rates but keenly attuned to signals for future cuts.
Sell
CLOSEDGBPUSD
End Time
1.36000
Entry Price
1.32500
TP
1.37200
SL
1.36533 +0.00483 +0.36%
322
Points
Profit
1.32500
TP
1.35678
CLOSING
1.36000
Entry Price
1.37200
SL
The British Pound is under palpable pressure across the London forex desks this morning, trading firmly in the red against a basket of major currency rivals. This pre-emptive sell-off reflects a market bracing not for a surprise, but for a tone. All focus is laser-locked on Threadneedle Street, where the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will deliver its latest interest rate decision and, more critically, the contours of its future path.
Consensus is near-unanimous: the BoE will hold its Bank Rate steady at 3.75%. This follows the historic shift in December, which saw the central bank, after a prolonged and aggressive tightening cycle, finally pivot to a 25-basis-point cut. The narrative today hinges on the vote split and the accompanying communication. Market economists largely anticipate a 7-2 division, with members Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor expected to renew their dovish stance by advocating for an immediate follow-up cut of another 25 basis points. Their dissension will be a key barometer of the Committee's internal pressure to act.
However, the true volatility catalyst—and the source of the Sterling’s current malaise—will not be the decision itself, but the subsequent Monetary Policy Report and the press conference led by Governor Andrew Bailey. The December meeting placed policy on a "gradual downward path." The question haunting traders now is: How gradual, and how bumpy will that path be?
The economic landscape the MPC must navigate justifies this caution, yet also underscores the fragility weighing on the currency. Recent data paints a picture of an economy caught between stubborn residual price pressures and a labour market losing its vigour. The latest ILO unemployment rate held at 5.1% for a second consecutive month, its highest level since the pandemic-induced disruptions of early 2021. This softening employment backdrop is the clearest green light for the doves on the Committee, reducing wage-driven inflation risks and affording room for stimulus.
Yet, the inflation devil remains in the details. The BoE’s own projections from December foresaw a leisurely return to the sacred 2% target only by the second quarter of 2026—a distant horizon. That forecast was complicated by December’s consumer price data, which showed an unwelcome re-acceleration after encouraging cools in October and November. This flicker of persistence is the likely anchor preventing a more aggressive consensus for cuts today and the argument hawks will cling to.
Therefore, Governor Bailey’s task at the podium will be one of delicate balance. He must acknowledge the deteriorating labour data to validate the easing bias, yet simultaneously temper expectations for a rapid-fire cutting cycle in the face of inflation that remains above target and is proving somewhat sticky. Officials are likely to endorse the continued "gradual" easing narrative, but may introduce nuances—emphasizing data dependency, highlighting services inflation, or pointing to global uncertainties.
For Sterling traders, this translates to a high-risk environment. A hold was fully priced in; the market has moved on. A more dovish than anticipated tone—signaled through a larger dissent, downward revisions in inflation projections in the Report, or explicitly open language from Bailey about the timing of the next cut—could trigger a fresh leg lower for the GBP, potentially targeting key support levels against the Euro and the resurgent US Dollar. Conversely, any pushback against market pricing for cuts in 2024, or heightened concern over the December inflation blip, could spur a sharp, if temporary, short-covering rally.
In essence, the Pound’s fate today rests not on what the Bank of England does, but on what it says and implies about the meetings to come. The currency’s current weakness is a bet that the spectre of unemployment and a slowing economy will trump inflationary concerns in the Committee’s rhetoric. The stage is set for a classic central bank communication tightrope walk, with billions in Sterling exposure hanging on every syllable.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, GBP/USD is showing signs of a bearish rejection from a major supply zone on the daily chart, suggesting the recent rally may have completed a corrective move within a broader range environment. Price recently rallied aggressively into the 1.3650–1.3900 resistance zone, a region that has repeatedly capped upside since mid-2025, and has already begun to rotate lower after printing a sharp rejection wick.
Structurally, the pair remains in a large horizontal range bounded by resistance near 1.3850–1.3900 and key support around 1.3000–1.3050. The latest rally into resistance appears to have been a liquidity sweep above the 1.3650 mid-range level, followed by immediate bearish follow-through, which typically signals exhaustion of bullish momentum rather than continuation.
In the near term, 1.3650 has now flipped back into resistance, and the loss of momentum below this level suggests sellers are regaining control. If price remains below this zone, the path of least resistance points lower toward the 1.3200–1.3250 support region, which aligns with previous consolidation and range equilibrium. A sustained move below that area would expose the 1.3000–1.3050 range floor, marking a full rotation back to the lower boundary of the broader structure.
On the upside, bulls would need a strong daily close back above 1.3650, followed by acceptance above 1.3850, to invalidate the bearish rejection and reopen the path toward 1.4000. Until that occurs, rallies are likely to be viewed as selling opportunities within the range.
Overall, price action suggests a completed corrective rally and the early stages of a bearish rotation toward mid-range support.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
SELL GBP/USD
ENTRY PRICE: 1.3600
STOP LOSS: 1.3720
TAKE PROFIT: 1.3250
Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.
Quick Access to 7x24
Quick Access to More Editor-selected Real-time News
Exclusive video for free
FastBull project team is dedicated to create exclusive videos
Real-time Quotes
View more faster market quotes
More comprehensive macro data and economic indicators
Members have access to entire historical data, guests can only view the last 4 years
Member-only Database
Comprehensive forex, commodity, and equity market data
English
English
العربية
繁體中文
简体中文
Bahasa Melayu
Bahasa Indonesia
ภาษาไทย
Tiếng Việt
Copyright © 2026 FastBull Ltd
Home News Columns 7x24 Economic Calendar Quotes Video Data WarehouseAnalysis AI Signal Pro User Agreement Privacy Policy About Us
Risk Disclosure
The risk of loss in trading financial assets such as stocks, FX, commodities, futures, bonds, ETFs or crypto can be substantial. You may sustain a total loss of the funds that you deposit with your broker. Therefore, you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources.
No consideration to invest should be made without thoroughly conduct your own due diligence, or consult with your financial advisors. Our web content might not suit you, since we have not known your financial condition and investment needs. It is possible that our financial information might have latency or contains inaccuracy, so you should be fully responsible for any of your transactions and investment decisions. The company will not be responsible for your capital lost.
Without getting the permission from the website, you are not allow to copy the website graphics, texts, or trade marks. Intellectual property rights in the content or data incorporated into this website belongs to its providers and exchange merchants.