Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that he will negotiate with U.S. President Donald Trump regarding a 28-point U.S.-backed peace plan for Ukraine. The proposal requires painful concessions from Ukraine to end Russia's invasion. This ongoing geopolitical risk continues to support commodity prices. Meanwhile, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its highly anticipated non-farm payrolls (NFP) report for September on Thursday, showing that the U.S. added 119,000 jobs in September. This followed an upwardly revised gain of 22,000 jobs in August (previously reported as a decline of 4,000), but still fell short of the 150,000 expected by economists, although it did beat the 50,000 forecast for September. This structural contradiction in the labor market makes it difficult for investors to form a clear judgment on the health of the economy. More importantly, remarks from Fed officials have further heightened policy uncertainty. Several policymakers, including Governor

Michael Barr, Cleveland Fed President Beth M. Hammack, and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee have expressed concerns over persistent inflation, warning that premature rate cuts could prolong inflationary pressures and pose risks to financial stability. Only White House adviser Kevin Hassett has dissented, advocating for immediate rate reductions. Notably, due to statistical disruptions caused by the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, the next employment report will be delayed until December 16th. This means the Federal Reserve will face a critical vacuum of key economic data ahead of its December policy meeting — an unprecedented situation that is forcing markets to reassess the policy outlook. As a result, the U.S. dollar index remains above the 100 level, continuing to weigh on gold prices.

The U.S. dollar's recent rally to its highest level since May lost some momentum due to the prolonged government shutdown and weakened economic growth. Additionally, overall weakness in equity markets provided some support to gold as a safe-haven asset. As such, gold traders should remain cautious and prepare for the possibility of significant short-term depreciation.

Previously, the minutes of the October FOMC meeting released on Wednesday revealed ongoing divisions among committee members regarding the future policy direction, with dovish sentiment weakening. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, the probability of another Fed rate cut in December has dropped to around 35%. Senior metals strategist Peter Grant commented that these data largely confirm what the Fed discussed in October — the labor market is slowing but remains stable. He also explained that the likelihood of a rate cut in December now appears increasingly slim. This has put downward pressure on gold prices. Traders will be closely monitoring the U.S. S&P Global PMI flash readings due out later on Friday. Any signs of economic weakness in the U.S. could boost gold prices, which continue to find some support as a traditional safe-haven asset. Additionally, continued accumulation of gold by major central banks provides further underlying support. Officials from the People's Bank of China stated that the bank added 1.2 tons of gold in September and has now increased its holdings for the 12th consecutive month in October.  

On the hourly chart, the Bollinger Bands are expanding downward, with the price briefly breaking below $4040. In the near term, the depreciating trend remains unchanged. Meanwhile, a death cross is formed with the signal line and the MACD line heading downward, getting closer to the 0-axis, a signal of selling. The RSI stays at 38, indicating condensed market pessimism, with support located at $4000 and $3930. Regarding the daily chart, the MACD bullish histogram is gradually weakening, even as price fails to make new highs — a sign of a potential bearish divergence. The likelihood of further short-term declines is relatively high. Support levels include the Bollinger Lower Band and the 50-day EMA, at $3900 and $3959, respectively. The RSI is at 49, placing the price in a neutral zone, though recent highs have been gradually declining. It is recommended to sell at highs.

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 4045

Target price: 3600

Stop loss: 4390

Support: 3900/3800/3600

Resistance: 4380/4500/5000