A hawkish shift in the global liquidity environment constitutes the core logic suppressing gold prices from a macro-policy perspective. The barrage of central bank interest rate decisions released yesterday uniformly signaled stronger-than-anticipated hawkish stances. While the Federal Reserve maintained its current policy rate, Chair Powell post-meeting emphasized that the escalating Middle Eastern geopolitical situation injected significant uncertainty into the economic outlook. He highlighted the risk of surging energy prices exacerbating inflationary pressures through supply-chain transmission mechanisms, noting a marked rise in market inflation expectations. This directly led market participants to further scale back their expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2026. Concurrently, the European Central Bank also noted that geopolitical conflict has darkened the economic horizon, with inflation remaining a serious threat, prompting investors to price in the possibility of renewed rate hikes within the year. Subtle shifts were also evident at the Bank of England and Bank of Japan, pivoting from partial official support for cuts to some advocating for renewed policy tightening to counter imported inflation. From a global macro-policy coordination viewpoint, major developed economy central banks have re-prioritized inflation control above other policy goals. The upside risk to the energy price baseline threatens to end the previously anticipated global easing cycle, even potentially reversing policy direction, which applies fundamental valuation pressure on the non-yielding asset gold.

In the 4H timeframe, the Bollinger Bands are widening downward with moving averages diverging lower, indicating a declining trend. The price is oscillating downward between the EMA12 and the lower Bollinger Band. Failure to sustain above 4500 could lead to a decline to around 4400, while a firm hold above 4500 may trigger an upward move towards 5000 and 5200. Following a MACD death cross, the MACD line and signal line have receded below the zero line. With the RSI at 28, market participants are predominantly selling. In the 1D timeframe, the price has breached both the lower Bollinger Band and the EMA50, entering a short-term bearish trend. A further drop to the vicinity of the EMA200, around 4225, is highly probable. The RSI reading of 36 reflects intense market pessimism. The strategy favors selling on rallies.

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 4750

Target Price: 4300

Stop Loss: 5000

Support: 4500, 4300, 4100

Resistance: 5000, 5100, 5600