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Oversold RSI Open Selling Opportunities at Resistance
Forex
Economic
Summary:
Adding pressure for a pullback, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached the 70 level, indicating overbought conditions.
Sell
TradingEURUSD
EXP
1.16700
Entry Price
1.15220
TP
1.17100
SL
1.16426 -0.00019 -0.02%
0
Point
Flat
1.15220
TP
CLOSING
1.16700
Entry Price
1.17100
SL
Recent U.S. economic data revealed that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell below economists' estimates for the week ending November 29th. Initial jobless claims came in at 191,000, comfortably lower than the 220,000 forecast and representing a decrease from last week’s figures, which were revised slightly higher from 216,000 to 218,000.
Meanwhile, continuing claims for the week ending November 22nd were recorded at 1.939 million, a slight drop from the prior week’s 1.943 million. Separately, the Challenger Job Report disclosed that employers announced 71,321 job cuts in November. While this marked a 24% increase compared to the figures from the previous year, it was a notable 53% decrease from the elevated number announced in October.
Despite the recent improvement in initial claims, market participants still price in more than an 85% probability of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s December 9-10 meeting, a sentiment largely sustained by Wednesday’s disappointing ADP employment change data.
Trilateral negotiations between the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine aimed at achieving peace continue without clear progress. Russian President Vladimir Putin commented that his meeting with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff was "very useful." In recent hours, however, Russian attacks have resulted in five fatalities in the Donetsk and Kherson regions. Several Ukrainian representatives are scheduled to meet with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Washington this Thursday.
In the Eurozone, data released by Eurostat revealed that Retail Sales stagnated in October, following an upwardly revised 0.1% increase in September, and missed the market expectation for further 0.1% growth. On a year-over-year basis, however, sales increased at a rate of 1.5%, surpassing the 1.4% forecast and exceeding the 1.0% reading from September.
The Euro has recently received support from strong final figures in the HCOB Eurozone Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) released on Wednesday. Furthermore, ECB President Christine Lagarde delivered positive commentary regarding the Eurozone economy, assessing that resilient household spending and a strong labor market are supporting the region's economy, and that core inflation remains consistent. These comments suggest the ECB is likely to maintain stable interest rates following its December 18th meeting.
Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is currently exhibiting a bearish reaction after reaching the 1.1670 resistance zone, a level that previously triggered a sharp move to the downside on October 28th. If these conditions persist, and we observe a strong rejection once more, a downward move could ensue, targeting the ascending trendline support located near 1.1522. This zone is critical, as the sustained lack of new lower lows is essential for maintaining the longer-term bullish trend.
Adding pressure for a pullback, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached the 70 level, indicating overbought conditions. This will alert bears to potential shorting opportunities from the current resistance. The 100-period and 200-period Moving Averages (MAs) are closely clustered at 1.1588 and 1.1583, respectively. A decisive close below these MAs would likely act as a magnet, accelerating the price action toward the downside. Conversely, an upward break above the 1.1670 resistance level would invalidate the bearish setup, potentially opening the path for a more pronounced rally.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Sell
Entry price: 1.1670
Target price: 1.1522
Stop loss: 1.1710
Validity: Dec 16, 2025 15:00:00
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