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Overall Trend Is Bullish, with Short-Term Volatility Persisting
Commodity
Summary:
The fundamental analysis continues to support a bullish outlook for gold, but technical indicators suggest that gold is currently in a consolidation phase, likely to remain range-bound between 4,550 and 4,300 in the short term.
Sell
CLOSEDXAUUSD
End Time
4465.11
Entry Price
4340.00
TP
4505.00
SL
4505.61 +27.82 +0.62%
1651
Points
Profit
4340.00
TP
4448.60
CLOSING
4465.11
Entry Price
4505.00
SL
Fundamentals
Recent bullish fundamentals support for gold prices include: firstly, the escalating market expectation of additional Federal Reserve rate cuts, with the first easing since the year's start exerting downward pressure on nominal and real interest rates, thereby reducing the opportunity cost of gold holdings and enhancing its relative appeal. Secondly, persistent inflows into gold-related ETFs from institutional and passive funds indicate strong capital flows, with institutional buying and ETF net inflows establishing visible demand fundamentals for physical gold. Thirdly, multiple investment banks and research institutions have revised their medium-term gold price forecasts upward, suggesting further upside potential driven by declining interest rates and central bank purchase strategies (e.g., Morgan Stanley's optimistic outlook).
Overall, these factors underpin the logic of support for high-level gold prices: short-term market signals (U.S. Treasury yields, dollar strength, key economic data) may cause volatility, but medium-term expectations remain predominantly bullish due to sustained capital flows and policy outlooks.
Technical Analysis
In the 1D timeframe, gold is currently consolidating at elevated levels. Until the resistance at 4,550 is broken, it is likely to remain within a range of 4,300 to 4,550 in the near term. However, the SMA system still maintains a bullish alignment, indicating that the medium- to long-term trend remains upward.
In the 1H timeframe, recent candlestick patterns suggest the formation of a Head and Shoulders top structure. If gold fails to break above 4,475 in the short term and the 1H candlesticks close lower, it indicates the right shoulder of the pattern is forming, and bearish momentum will significantly increase. The initial target could be a decline below 4,400.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Sell
Entry Price: 4465.00
Target Price: 4340.00
Stop Loss: 4505.00
Valid Until: January 21, 2026 23:00:00
Support: 4397.00, 4333.00
Resistance: 4475.00, 4500.00
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