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Oil Falls Below $63 With US–Russia Meeting Looming, Tariff Concerns Mount
Commodity
Traders' Opinions
Summary:
WTI crude prices slipped to near two-month lows on Monday as optimism over a planned US-Russia meeting to discuss the Ukraine conflict weighed on geopolitical risk premiums.
Sell
CLOSEDWTI
End Time
62.800
Entry Price
60.000
TP
65.000
SL
63.724 -0.313 -0.49%
923
Points
Profit
60.000
TP
61.877
CLOSING
62.800
Entry Price
65.000
SL
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil extended losses in early European trade on Monday, hovering around $62.50 a barrel — its weakest level since June — as traders reassessed the geopolitical risk premium ahead of a high-stakes meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The proposed meeting, scheduled for Friday in Alaska, aims to address the ongoing Ukraine conflict. It follows a period of heightened tensions during which Trump threatened punitive measures against buyers of Russian crude. While the potential for diplomacy could mark a rare de-escalation in the standoff, it also carries implications for oil markets, potentially removing sanctions-related supply constraints that have lent prices support in recent months.
“If we do see some level of de-escalation, it would remove sanction risk from the oil market. This would likely drive prices lower, given the bearish fundamentals,” said Ewa Manthey, Commodities Strategist at ING.
Beyond geopolitics, sentiment in energy markets is being shaped by a broader macroeconomic backdrop clouded by fresh trade measures. On Thursday, Washington imposed higher tariffs on imports from dozens of countries — a move likely to stoke fears of weaker global growth and diminished fuel demand. Imports from the EU, Japan, and South Korea now carry a 15% tariff, while shipments from Taiwan, Vietnam, and Bangladesh face a 20% levy. Trump has signaled he expects these economies to offset the trade hit by investing “hundreds of billions” of dollars in the United States, though markets remain skeptical.
Oil traders are also watching domestic US data for cues. The American Petroleum Institute (API) will release its weekly crude oil stockpile estimates on Tuesday, followed by the US Energy Information Administration’s official data on Wednesday. Any larger-than-expected inventory build could deepen the bearish sentiment already gripping the market.
Adding to the mix, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation reading for July, due Tuesday, could inject volatility into both currency and commodity markets. A softer-than-expected CPI print might weaken the US dollar, offering some respite to USD-denominated assets such as crude oil. However, analysts caution that underlying demand concerns could still cap any rebound.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, WTI remains under heavy selling pressure. The price has repeatedly failed to break above the key resistance at $63.75, reinforcing the dominance of the prevailing bearish trend. The commodity continues to trade along a minor downward bias on short-term charts and remains suppressed by the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50). Momentum indicators add to the gloom — the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rolled over after touching overbought levels, signaling fresh downside momentum.
Short-term outlooks point to a possible retest of June’s lows if sentiment fails to improve. A decisive close below $62.00 could open the way toward the $60.50–$60.00 zone, where psychological and technical supports converge. Conversely, any sustained move back above $63.75 could encourage short covering, though broader macro headwinds remain firmly in place.
TRADE RECOMMEDNATION
SELL WTI
ENTRY PRICE: 62.80
STOP LOSS: 65.00
TAKE PROFIT: 60.00
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