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No Short Position Option
Summary:
Gold’s short-term rebound failed to sustain, and the current trend remains in a recovery phase following a sharp pullback. The rebound was mainly driven by short covering rather than fresh long entries. Coupled with volatile geopolitical expectations, market sentiment has turned cautious.
Buy
TradingXAUUSD
EXP
4478.07
Entry Price
5200.00
TP
4170.00
SL
4493.18 +116.08 +2.65%
0
Point
Flat
4170.00
SL
CLOSING
4478.07
Entry Price
5200.00
TP
Fundamentals
After a strong rebound on Tuesday, gold failed to build effective upward momentum on Wednesday and Thursday. Meanwhile, mixed signals from US-Iran negotiations have dampened market optimism. This suggests Tuesday’s rally is more likely a periodic correction within the downtrend, rather than the start of a new trending rise.
In terms of drivers, the current rebound mainly stemmed from position adjustments, that is, concentrated profit-taking by shorts, rather than sustained inflows of new long capital. In addition, the US delayed potential strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure by five days, easing geopolitical tensions in the short term and providing some support to gold prices. However, the sustainability of this factor remains uncertain.
Currently, the core feature of the gold market is a significant rise in volatility. Implied volatility has jumped rapidly to 35 since last Thursday, standing at approximately the 99.4% of its historical range since 2009. This structure typically corresponds to a market phase of “sharp decline – deleveraging – repricing”, meaning prices will likely need time to consolidate in the short term as volatility gradually cools.
From a longer-term perspective, the medium-to-long-term supportive logic for gold remains fundamentally unchanged. On one hand, the global geopolitical structure is rapidly reshaping, the US dollar credit system is marginally weakening, and the “de-dollarization” trend continues. On the other hand, the expanding US debt burden keeps the monetary environment highly dependent on accommodative policies. Against this backdrop, gold lacks a macro foundation for a trending reversal lower.
Therefore, last week’s rapid decline is closer to a deep technical correction following an earlier overextended rally. The market may undergo an extended bottoming consolidation phase, with the window for a new trending move likely delayed until after April.
Technical Analysis
The technical structure also confirms the current “recovery market” view. Although prices pulled back for two consecutive days, the $4,100 zone has gradually been validated as a key support area, serving as both a psychological level and technical support. Dip-buying interest near this zone has provided a stabilizing base for the market in the near term.
On the upside, gold faces clear resistance near $4,600. This zone confluences multiple key technical factors, including the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the $5,420–$4,098 decline (around $4,605) and the MA55 on the 4-hour chart, forming a dense resistance area. Such a multi-confluence resistance structure will cap upside potential in the short term.
However, from a structural evolution perspective, markets after a sharp decline typically follow a path of “momentum exhaustion followed by recovery”. Under this logic, the current phase is more suitable for buying on dips for long positions, rather than shorting in line with short-term fluctuations.
Trade Recommendations
Trade Direction: Buy
Entry Price: 4304
Target Price: 5200
Stop Loss: 4170
Valid Until: April 25, 2026, 23:55:00
Support: 4375/4306/4325
Resistance: 4504/4602/4739
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