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New Record High! Will Gold Reach $5000 Next Month?
Economic
Forex
Technical Analysis
Summary:
Concerns over the prolonged shutdown of the U.S. government are intensifying, which is putting pressure on the U.S. dollar and supporting the prices of commodities priced in dollars.
Buy
TradingXAUUSD
EXP
4279.27
Entry Price
5000.00
TP
4000.00
SL
4256.23 +5.21 +0.12%
0
Point
Flat
4000.00
SL
CLOSING
4279.27
Entry Price
5000.00
TP
Fundamentals
Concerns over the prolonged government shutdown in the U.S., growing expectations of further rate cuts by the Fed, and the ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China have all supported gold prices. Traders will closely monitor the Fed's speech later this Friday for new market direction. U.S. President Donald Trump stated that Washington is considering severing parts of its trade relations with China after both countries started imposing additional port fees on cargo vessels. On the other hand, easing geopolitical risk concerns could weaken safe-haven assets such as gold. According to Bloomberg, Trump said on Thursday evening that he and Russian President Vladimir Putin had agreed to hold another summit to discuss ending the war in Ukraine. The day before, Trump had talks scheduled with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Meanwhile, concerns about the prolonged U.S. government shutdown are growing, putting pressure on the U.S. dollar and supporting the prices of commodities priced in dollars. With the Senate failing to advance legislation to restore funding, the federal government shutdown has entered its third week. U.S. Treasury officials have stated that the shutdown could result in up to $15 billion in weekly output losses for the U.S. economy. Expectations of rate cuts by the Fed have further fueled this trend. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Tuesday that the significant slowdown in hiring presents an increasing risk to the U.S. economy, hinting that the Fed may cut rates two more times this year. Additionally, Fed Governor Christopher Waller expressed his support for another rate cut at the Fed's policy meeting later this month, given the mixed conditions in the labor market. Lower interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, thus supporting this non-yielding precious metal.
Technical Analysis
On the 4-hour chart, gold is trading with the Bollinger Bands opening upwards, and the moving averages are diverging upwards. The price is oscillating upwards along the EMA12 and the upper Bollinger Band. The MACD has formed a "Golden Cross." The bullish momentum remains strong without any significant signs of weakening. The RSI is at 76, indicating strong bullish sentiment in the market. However, the RSI is forming an M-top, suggesting that while the price is still rising in the short term, a pullback is possible at any time. As long as the price does not fall below the EMA12, there is a high probability of it rising to 4400.
On the daily chart, the price is oscillating upwards along the upper Bollinger Band. After the MACD golden cross, there has been no sign of weakening bullish momentum. The RSI is at 87, entering the overbought zone, which suggests a higher likelihood of short-term correction. However, as long as gold does not fall below the EMA12, the upward trend remains intact. The strategy recommends a "short then long" approach, with a focus on buying on dips.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Long
Entry Price: 4280
Target Price: 5000
Stop Loss: 4000
Support: 4100/4000/3800
Resistance: 4380/4500/5000
Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.
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