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Momentum-Structure Divergence, Trade Structure-Driven
Commodity
Summary:
Ukraine strikes Russia's key export hub, sparking crude-supply fears.
Buy
TradingWTI
EXP
60.212
Entry Price
64.360
TP
57.300
SL
59.409 -0.204 -0.34%
0
Point
Flat
57.300
SL
CLOSING
60.212
Entry Price
64.360
TP
Fundamentals
On Friday, oil prices gained nearly 1% in early trading after reports that Ukrainian drones had struck a key Russian export hub, reviving supply-risk concerns.
Nevertheless, WTI crude posted a weekly loss and is down around 15% year-to-date as consensus builds for an oversupplied market.
Last week, the rise in U.S. crude inventories underscored weakening demand in the world's largest consumer. Meanwhile, the IEA revised this year's projected surplus higher. The OPEC estimates that supply exceeded demand in Q3.
Near-term WTI direction will hinge on incoming inventory statistics and geopolitical developments in producing regions. Shifts in the global demand outlook or U.S.-dollar strength—driven by trade headlines or Fed rate expectations—will also shape price action.
Technical Analysis
OWTI crude oil remains under sustained selling pressure, with the downtrend-channel resistance capping any attempted rallies. After failing to break above the upper bound of the channel, Fibonacci-expansion projections now point to a deeper retracement.
Oil is currently changing hands around $59.80/bbl, a level that coincides with the 50% Fibonacci-extension handle. Having been rejected at the channel resistance near $60.70/bbl, the market appears to be shifting its focus toward further downside in the sessions ahead.
The Fibonacci extension tool highlights potential downside targets that sellers may be aiming for. The 61.8% extension level is located at $58.69, while the 76.4% extension level sits at $58.22. Should the decline persist, WTI crude could slide toward the 100% Fibonacci extension at $57.45—a key area of interest and the next probable support zone.
In terms of moving averages, the SMA100 is positioned below the SMA200, confirming that the downside remains the path of least resistance and the prevailing downtrend is more likely to persist. Price currently trades beneath both dynamic levels, implying they may act as resistance on any attempted rebound.
The Stochastic Oscillator, having retreated from overbought territory, is now hovering near the midpoint of its range, suggesting scope for bullish momentum to rebuild. With limited room before the indicator would reach oversold levels, accumulation by buyers could be underway in the near term.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutrally aligned. Although bulls retain control, no sign of exhaustion has yet emerged.
Trade Recommendations
Trade Direction: Buy
Entry Price: 59.67
Target Price: 64.36
Stop Loss: 57.30
Valid Until: November 2, 2025, 23:55:00
Support: 59.48/59.13/58.64
Resistance Levels: 60.24/60.46/61.19
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